Coronavirus Implications For London's Transport

In some ways not having peaks that are quite as busy as before should be a blessing, as it means a less intensive peak service is needed, fewer trains, less crowding etc.

The only downside is that income might be down, somewhat.


re: the news that the funding settlement is further delayed, my thoughts turn to the proverbial can being kicked further down the road.

Eventually TFL and the Treasury will need a major re-think on funding.

I somehow feel it is dangerous for TFL (and the unions) to overlook the big picture or assume things will "return to normal".

Regardless of Covid - commuting levels in and around London have probably returned to their new peak as more and more office based businesses have developed effective Work from Home arrangements. Yes there may still be a need for occasional gatherings/team meetings but these are likely to require only occasional "all hands on deck" and can be accommodated in a rented conference facility or meeting hall rather than a expensive corporate HQ.

Already many office based companies have realised that once you write off the initial costs then going forward working from home saves them money - lots of money - as they can reduce their office heating bills, can reduce or sell off office space, can minimise travel expense claims and can still pay staff the same amount.

The weird bit is many people working from home actually seem keen to work harder - if only to demonstrate to colleagues still based in the office that they are not sitting around doing nothing. Yes there was a once off cost adapting business processes to support people working from home but that bill has been paid, and working from Home will be the norm for many new businesses.

As they say the genie is out the bottle and forecast commuting numbers need a serious re-think - which may mean it is time to seriously adjust staffing and service levels across the tube to reflect real travel patterns.

Going on strike now simply demonstrates that many people can actually do without their service - yes it causes inconvenience for many but "life goes on" - I feel it is only a matter of time before Night Tube is abandoned and funds will be found by the Treasury to transfer the Waterloo and City back to Network Rail which will only be re-opened after it is modified for fully automated operation.

I am worried that the louder Mayor Khan insists the system is safe whilst insisting on people wearing masks to fight a disease which we are now being told is endemic within the UK population is only underscoring the message that public transport is more dangerous - so hardly a good image to attract potential visitors and indeed why many people will continue to prefer to drive around in their own enclosed air conditioned box regardless of the environmental or economic cost.

Wake up Mayor - your messaging is counter-productive - by all means encourage - but do not mandate masks. That ship has sailed...

I think there’s a way to go yet before we know what the new normal will be like. My employer is still limiting office capacity to 50%, and people are only starting to come back in.

Traveling on Wednesday was the first time I’d encountered a properly busy Circle line train, enough for me to step back onto the following one. But I still walked without breaking step from Platform 0 to Circle line platform at Kings Cross.

There’s time yet for things to evolve, and I agree that demand is delicate.

I rather had the impression that at least as far as TFL services were concerned the Mayor had chosen to insist passengers wear masks - so what exactly is holding back these "more people" from currently using public transport in London?

Meanwhile the underlying message from Government advisers is that we have pretty much attained herd immunity in the UK - so just how long does it make sense to "insist" on masks as opposed to recommending them? Should we still be having this discussion next year? Next decade? Next Century?

(Why am I am suddenly reminded of scary calculations last century about the potential depth of horse dung being deposited on London Roads - masks thrown away per journey = xxx? millions of tonnes of extra rubbish to sweep up or collect and dispose of in contaminated land fill)

We are told that lots of people (vaccinated & unvaccinated) could right now have some variant of the Covid virus but have no symptoms and be spreading it around and around wherever they go. So Covid becomes more and more like colds and flu and we are never going to get rid of this virus completely.

Whilst there was no effective vaccine and very limited understanding of Covid risks, Government imposed lockdowns and mask mandates made sense to limit exposure. However now pretty much anyone who really WANTS to be vaccinated has been able to get vaccinated. Hence people should now be allowed to revert to normal. Indeed that may finally see some growth in overseas visitor numbers and public transport use.

As for surveys - no matter how well intentioned - they are very prone to question bias. They will often only give a broad indication based on what the surveyor has been instructed to ask. Sadly survey contacts are not always willing to share their true thoughts and can give answers which they think the survey authors want to hear. "Yes of course I would use Public Transport more but..."

Rather than relying on educated guesswork, I hope TFL can find the funds to carry out an in-depth trawl through historical Oyster data (suitably anonymised) which should provide a far better picture of where there is real demand and where it has been lost.

They do use oyster data for exactly that airport is 38 percent lower and city is 48 percent and shopping at 59 percent obviously there is a lot more than those they look at

I'm not sure that 'an admission' is the right term here.

It makes it sound like it was known, but they were covering it up!

TfL publishes an annual report which details revenue and expenditure so it was well known that fares were the major sources of income. In April 2020 the Mayor warned that TfL was having to use it's cash reserves to keep services running and that it would have to cut services if it didn't get government funding

How is that "covering it up"?

In October 2020 the Prime Minister claimed that the Mayor had "bankrupted" TfL and that was repeated by others including the Conservative candidate for the London mayoral elections. To the best of my knowledge this is the first time anyone from the government has blamed the over reliance on fares and the drop in passengers due to Covid.

It might have been "common knowledge" but the government and Conservatives on the Greater London Authority have repeatedly accused the Mayor of being responsible for TfL's financial situation, the implication being that had the Mayor done things different since 2016 TfL wouldn't be in such dire financial straits, a claim which certain sections of the press were more than happy to promote..

As I said that is the first time I've seen anyone connected with the government specifically mention TfL's reliance on fares.

Latest TfL figures show continued growth in ridership following lifting of working from home restrictions (press release):

New analysis of ridership data by TfL has revealed that, since working from home restrictions were lifted on 19 January 2022, the number of people using the Tube during weekdays has increased by at least 25 per cent. Ridership is now regularly around 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels during the week - up from around 45 per cent in early January, with stations close to financial institutions such as Canary Wharf, Mansion House and Aldgate seeing ridership numbers between 8 and 9am already well on track to having double seen while working from home restrictions were in place. Ridership on the Waterloo and City line is now just under 50 per cent of pre-pandemic levels during peak hours, following a full weekday service resuming on 31 January.



At weekends, ridership on the Tube is now at around 75 per cent of pre-pandemic levels and key tourist stations such as Leicester Square are already seeing ridership levels above 80 per cent on Saturday. The Night Tube is continuing to see increased ridership, with levels on the Victoria and Central line now at around 45 per cent of those seen on those lines prior to the pandemic. Ridership on the Night Overground, which operates between Highbury & Islington and New Cross Gate on Friday and Saturday nights, is also now around 50 per cent of levels seen before the pandemic.

I have to disagree about mask wearing on the DLR.

It is usually pretty good on the Woolwich Arsenal services.

funding package extended to 24 June 2022:

One might say that the DfT are obsessed

Weekend ridership on the Tube is now 85-90% of pre-Covid levels according to Tom Edwards of the BBC.