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Post by theblackferret on Mar 17, 2017 15:45:24 GMT
Has anyone got the projected passenger figure usage for the two proposed new stations & has anyone done a rigorous cost benefit analysis on such figures as do exist?
I'm simply asking as I've just picked a couple of stations at random,
Finchley Road & Frognal, bit off the beaten track, other alternatives abound, but still pulling in around 6,100 passengers a day
Northwood Hills, well out in the sticks & not too many alternatives, just over 4,750 passengers a day.
So would you expect the two new stations to be pulling in around 5,000 per day each, because I would say that's the minimum to justify the scheme?
So, if the projected usage is 10,000 a day, the actual usage might just make it?
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Post by trt on Mar 17, 2017 16:07:24 GMT
Has anyone got the projected passenger figure usage for the two proposed new stations & has anyone done a rigorous cost benefit analysis on such figures as do exist? I'm simply asking as I've just picked a couple of stations at random, Finchley Road & Frognal, bit off the beaten track, other alternatives abound, but still pulling in around 6,100 passengers a day Northwood Hills, well out in the sticks & not too many alternatives, just over 4,750 passengers a day. So would you expect the two new stations to be pulling in around 5,000 per day each, because I would say that's the minimum to justify the scheme? So, if the projected usage is 10,000 a day, the actual usage might just make it? Sections 6 & 7 in this document, which was an investigation into the CBR of four alternative schemes. www.croxleyraillink.com/downloads/app34/Appendix%20K%20-%20Demand%20Forecasting%20Report.pdfThe figures are diabolical to interpret, but it boils down to around a 12% increase (on top of any predicted natural increases) in passenger footfall over a 15 year period for the CRL/MLX plan with two stations.
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Post by theblackferret on Mar 17, 2017 16:18:36 GMT
Thanks-if that's the case then Watford Met's current 5,150 per day use will increase to just over 5,264 per day, spread over the new stations.
Heady stuff indeed. No wonder there's talk of little else throughout the Home Counties.
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Post by trt on Mar 17, 2017 16:46:29 GMT
It's important to note that the positive CBR was mostly down to congestion easing, business rates etc etc, i.e. benefits to the economy of Watford rather than benefits in terms of fare revenues which Watford wouldn't see much of at all. As TfL were obviously a partner in the scheme, the revenue bit for them was included in the calculations but it was nowhere near even breaking even. They were shaving £6 off the £113m price in order to tip the scales. Now it's more than doubled! They really ought to be revisiting the original comparison of schemes.
Any contemplation of what they could do instead, though, is crayonista territory.
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Post by silenthunter on Mar 17, 2017 17:12:38 GMT
I would love to see the revenue projections and to know how much of a basket case the Croxley link is from a financial viewpoint. I suspect that the Watford branch, north of Harrow probably currently costs a mint to operate. Turn it into a line with a commuter base at each end and it would not surprise me if commuter revenues went up by a third. Leisure/shopping journeys would also increase. Watford High Street station is probably better located for shoppers than any other station on the met. HOTH? Personally I prefer the Forest Moon of Endor. Much nicer climate.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Mar 17, 2017 17:58:13 GMT
Has anyone got the projected passenger figure usage for the two proposed new stations & has anyone done a rigorous cost benefit analysis on such figures as do exist? s So would you expect the two new stations to be pulling in around 5,000 per day each, because I would say that's the minimum to justify the scheme? If the projected usage is 10,000 a day, the actual usage might just make it? Yes, but not all the newly-created journeys will involve footfall at the new stations. There will be some new end to end journeys as well - from Watford Junction/ HSt to Croxley and beyond. A third increase in Revenue is a lot, I feel sure it will be enough to switch the line from loss to profit.. That depends what the baseline (current revenue) is. Whether the overall revenue increase is 33% or 333%, if you start with zilch you end up with zilch. ; The numbers travelling to St. Albans are negligible as the cross town connection involves a long uphill walk.. Who said anything about changing stations? St Albans is a destination in its own right. (And conversely there may also be residents of St Albans who wish to travel to Rickmansworth, Aylesbury etc etc.
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Post by trt on Mar 18, 2017 12:11:03 GMT
The numbers travelling to St. Albans are negligible as the cross town connection involves a long uphill walk.. Who said anything about changing stations? St Albans is a destination in its own right. (And conversely there may also be residents of St Albans who wish to travel to Rickmansworth, Aylesbury etc etc. When they close or downsize the hospital in St Albans they certainly will be wanting to get to Watford.
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Post by peterc on Mar 18, 2017 19:53:48 GMT
Abbey station isn't quite as remote as Watford (Met) but it is still well away from the town cente at the bottom of a steep hill.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 18, 2017 23:25:42 GMT
It's important to note that the positive CBR was mostly down to congestion easing, business rates etc etc, i.e. benefits to the economy of Watford rather than benefits in terms of fare revenues which Watford wouldn't see much of at all. As TfL were obviously a partner in the scheme, the revenue bit for them was included in the calculations but it was nowhere near even breaking even. They were shaving £6 off the £113m price in order to tip the scales. Now it's more than doubled! They really ought to be revisiting the original comparison of schemes. Any contemplation of what they could do instead, though, is crayonista territory. Going back through some old TfL paperwork it is worth noting that the business case overall remains a HCC responsibility ( content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20150701-part-1-item12-croxley-rail-link.pdf refers). It is not transferred to TfL so interestingly HCC have to appease the DfT and goodness knows how they can do that with costs at the level they are now at. This old TfL paper from 2011 shows a b/c ratio of 2.6:1 which isn't bad but that was for a constrained scheme. THe paper also notes that the revenue from the extension is hypothecated to pay off their contribution and then any excess is shared with LU. At this rate it'll take centuries to pay off their share.
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Post by linus on Mar 19, 2017 13:35:06 GMT
I wonder how much cost is attributable to overall improvements at High Street and Junction that, while desirable, may not be absolutely essential to MLX, and could therefore be removed from its budget and addressed elsewhere, or later?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2017 19:08:58 GMT
Abbey station isn't quite as remote as Watford (Met) but it is still well away from the town cente at the bottom of a steep hill. Not that City station is any nearer to the centre!
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Post by snoggle on Mar 19, 2017 19:12:39 GMT
I wonder how much cost is attributable to overall improvements at High Street and Junction that, while desirable, may not be absolutely essential to MLX, and could therefore be removed from its budget and addressed elsewhere, or later? Probably very little to be honest - only that which is necessary to accommodate the rolling stock and possibly something like platform humps, if feasible, to give improved accessibility to / from the train. The scheme has already been reviewed and descoped to pare down costs. There's little more to be done without losing stations in their entirety and then you sink the business case (even more than it's already sunk).
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Post by trt on Mar 20, 2017 11:37:22 GMT
The single biggest wedge of cash in the project is for the viaduct. It's not even that it's particularly ambitious.
When I alluded to crayonista stuff above, I was referring to the original comparison of scheme options which included a busway (possibly guided) to either Watford Met or Croxley (using the old goods yard). That meant a viaduct was not required, that a stopping point could be included within the hospital / football ground area instead of down and up a hill, and the possibility of running bus services around Croxley Business Park. It did mean possibly losing one of the two tracks that the London Overground service runs over, from High Street onwards only, of course. There would have been either two platforms for buses and two for trains or the busses would have run down a slope into the bus station at the front of the Junction. An advantage to that would have been using the dive-under to gain access to the Abbey Line and replacing that with a bus service that could form an East-West Herts Transport corridor that they keep going on about. Of course, the consultation / comparison was limited purely to the CRL part of the scheme.
I would say it's time to revisit that idea, despite how onerous guided busways are.
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Post by spsmiler on Mar 20, 2017 20:42:23 GMT
If its going to be a road project then having diesel buses stuck in traffic is not so wonderful. Lowest of the low.
Instead its best to go for something bolder and different. How about trolleybuses which use electricity sourced from a renewable facility - wind, solar, etc?
Or, light rail... this could also use much of the planned infrastructure and at a later date could be extended as a tram train at the Junction end to St Albans... and then as a tram again to meet the Midland Main Line station.
Passengers who use Watford Met would be delighted at a solution that retains their station. Some might even raise their arm and with index finger pointing towards Watford Town Centre suggest completing the project that was planned and would likely have been achieved had the Met survived a little longer.
Simon
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Post by snoggle on Mar 20, 2017 23:53:04 GMT
If its going to be a road project then having diesel buses stuck in traffic is not so wonderful. Lowest of the low. Instead its best to go for something bolder and different. How about trolleybuses which use electricity sourced from a renewable facility - wind, solar, etc? Or, light rail... this could also use much of the planned infrastructure and at a later date could be extended as a tram train at the Junction end to St Albans... and then as a tram again to meet the Midland Main Line station. Passengers who use Watford Met would be delighted at a solution that retains their station. Some might even raise their arm and with index finger pointing towards Watford Town Centre suggest completing the project that was planned and would likely have been achieved had the Met survived a little longer. Simon The UK will not see trolleybuses. There is no government support for a scheme that would involve costly unfamiliar infrastructure and most likely require restraint of competition to make it viable. If you can't get them in Leeds you certainly won't get them in Watford. You won't get light rail either in somewhere as insignificant as Watford. The Chancellor has no great enthusiasm for infrastructure spend other than that which he has inherited and cannot stop like HS2. He has far bigger risks to manage. If Croxley Link is scrapped then the local councils have to take a view on how much money they are prepared to spend / waste on seeking new powers to construct something. I rather suspect that the view will be they don't want to spend any more money on anything remotely radical or challenging. TfL will no doubt be delighted to save resources and bank the £50m that had been allocated to the project.
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Post by trt on Mar 21, 2017 11:02:03 GMT
I would favour hydrogen powered, hybrid busses.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Mar 21, 2017 11:45:59 GMT
I would favour hydrogen powered, hybrid busses. Hydrogen powered hybrids? Do such things exist? Why burn the hydrogen to drive a motor/generator to generate electricity, when a fuel cell can convert the hydrogen to electricity directly without all that inefficient combustion, rotation, and electromagnetic induction. Nearly all hydrogen powered vehicles in production use fuel cells. Petrol or diesel hybrids use internal combustion engines to generate electricity. Internal-combustion hydrogen powered vehicles do also exist, but these deliver mechanical power directly for propulsion, rather than using it to make electricity. Here is a typical example
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Post by trt on Mar 21, 2017 12:54:25 GMT
I was referring to the single decker version of the Wrightbus hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, which is described as being hybrid because although it is an all-electric drive train, it is a "hybrid" because there's an energy conversion stage other than at the output. This enables it to derive motive power from both the hydrogen fuel cells and the on-board storage batteries, which might be charged by induction, overhead power wires, a mains connection during long standing times, a solar roof panel and/or regenerative braking. Like the Streetcar RTV.Oh, and the Saturn-V was definitely duel fuel, using kerosene in the first stage and liquid hydrogen in the second and third stages, with a liquid oxygen supply for added oomph.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Mar 21, 2017 13:49:17 GMT
OK, the battery storage makes it a hybrid - indeed the ability to use an external electricity supply makes it a plug-in hybrid!
The liquid oxygen supply in Saturn V is not just for added oomph. Without it, there would be no oomph at all. Saturn V had to operate at up to 120 miles altitude. The record for an air-breathing aircraft is less than 20 miles - where the density of air is already only about 1% that at sea level.
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Post by melikepie on Mar 21, 2017 14:11:06 GMT
We do have battery powered trams in Edinburgh. However aren't we wandering off topic here?
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Post by trt on Mar 21, 2017 17:07:41 GMT
A little. Is there any "guided bus" trackway that is combined with rails?
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class411
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Post by class411 on Mar 21, 2017 17:22:48 GMT
OK, the battery storage makes it a hybrid - indeed the ability to use an external electricity supply makes it a plug-in hybrid! The liquid oxygen supply in Saturn V is not just for added oomph. Without it, there would be no oomph at all. Saturn V had to operate at up to 120 miles altitude. The record for an air-breathing aircraft is less than 20 miles - where the density of air is already only about 1% that at sea level. It's not just needed at altitude; there is no way in the world that an engine breathing environmental air could burn the amount of fuel one of those things needs to burn. In fact, the O2 is usually considered to be part of the fuel. Which is, logically, the case for all our internal combustion engines. If anyone was not aware of the fact, if you had a laboratory filled with H2 and a Bunsen burner fed with O2, the O2 would burn in the hydrogen 'atmosphere' in a similar way to that in which hydrogen or other gaseous fuel burns in an O2 atmosphere.
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rincew1nd
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Post by rincew1nd on Mar 21, 2017 20:15:09 GMT
Isn't that an external-combustion engine rather than internal? Anyway, perhaps we'd better get back on topic.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Mar 21, 2017 23:30:55 GMT
Isn't that an external-combustion engine rather than internal? As you asked the question: No, it isn't. In a rocket, combustion still takes place in the same chamber as expansion/thrust is generated. A steam engine is an example of external combustion. Back on topic, has anyone considered reopening the LNWR Watford- Rickmansworth route instead? How much of the trackbed is left? How easy would it be to link up with the Met at Ricky?
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Post by John Tuthill on Mar 21, 2017 23:39:32 GMT
Isn't that an external-combustion engine rather than internal? As you asked the question: No, it isn't. In a rocket, combustion still takes place in the same chamber as expansion/thrust is generated. A steam engine is an example of external combustion. Back on topic, has anyone considered reopening the LNWR Watford- Rickmansworth route instead? How much of the trackbed is left? How easy would it be to link up with the Met at Ricky? Check out the 'Disused Stations' web page
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Post by trt on Mar 21, 2017 23:57:33 GMT
The Ebury Way?
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Ben
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Post by Ben on Mar 22, 2017 1:08:48 GMT
So just to clarify - theres no more official progress on whether or not the scheme is going ahead yet. ?
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Post by snoggle on Mar 22, 2017 13:21:33 GMT
So just to clarify - theres no more official progress on whether or not the scheme is going ahead yet. ? Only what was referenced in the article. There is no mention of the scheme in the newly published TfL Budget for 2017/17 and there are no papers to the Board either about the project. If I was to speculate I suspect we might see something go to May's Board but I'm not holding my breath given this is all wrapped up in politics.
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Post by mrjrt on Mar 22, 2017 19:22:11 GMT
Back on topic, has anyone considered reopening the LNWR Watford- Rickmansworth route instead? How much of the trackbed is left? How easy would it be to link up with the Met at Ricky? This was looked at during the original studies. Little more than a bit of musing but part of me wondered if given that the railway was already grade-separated (the disused line passed under the Met, a-la: karenswalks.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/070120122651.jpg?w=480&h=640), could not a link be made between that and the "fast" lines on the Met route, enabling fast services from Amersham to bypass Croxley and Ascot Road en route to Watford Junction. I doubt there would ever be sufficient capacity constraints, let alone demand to warrant it, but that's pretty much the only reason you would ever want to use that route as it serves nowhere worth stopping at.
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Post by spsmiler on Mar 22, 2017 22:01:16 GMT
A little. Is there any "guided bus" trackway that is combined with rails? There was, in Germany. Cities of Essen and Mannheim. But not any more. The technology for such was proven viable - it was even possible for the buses to interact with the signals. re: the Croxley Link, I suppose that Mayor Khan will have no difficulty in reallocating / spending the £50m that will not now be spent in this new rail link. With inflation creeping upwards and him having pledged to not raise the fares that he controls, so this £50m will come in handy. Simon
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