MLX Metropolitan Line Extension (Go-ahead for Croxley Link)

No plans for any such workings at the moment. Chiltern won't take a punt so close to the end of their franchise term, especially since the commercial risk would be all theirs. Not impossible but highly unlikely that the DfT would include an Aylesbury-WFJ service in the ITT for the new post-2021 franchise. What is more likely, but again not by much, is TfL operating an Amersham- or Chesham-WFJ service. Of course, that would mean an 8-car 'S' stock carting an awful lot of fresh air around.

THC

There has never been anything on the official Chiltern Railways website about a service to WFJ, even when the other "Evergreen" proposals such as M1/M6 Parkway were itemised. There was however a fanboy website, which had a similar URL, suggesting that Chiltern were considering such a service despite no utterances to that effect from the company itself. I've just gone looking for it and it is indeed no longer there.

THC

Edit - found an archive link to the site I mention above here. Copy under the "Chiltern Railways Into the Future" heading states "If the Croxley Rail link gets the go ahead from Tfl and Hertfordshire County Council, direct services into Watford junction from Aylesbury will be likely, as it will link the Chilterns to the important commercial centre at Watford and the important transport connections at the Junction.". Absolutely no citation or source anywhere for this claim.

What capacity problems at Watford J? On some other services round the country, 4tph can be run one one platform. A certain station in Liverpool (Central) has around 12tph, 8 of which terminate and these are just at 2 platforms. I fail to see how adding 4tph to 3\4tph on the current arrangement will hamper things although good signalling is needed.

4 off-peak and upto 8 peak trains per hour from the Met, plus 3 London Overground trains per hour is still not really going to stretch the short two track section (only 3/4 mile). After all, the East London Line manages 16 trains per hour, from four southern branches, over a two track section. The line will need resignalling anyway, as part of the work on the link. e.g. there are no tripcocks north of Harrow on the DC line and the S8 stock will be a tight fit into the DC platforms as they are signalled currently.

Stabling of trains is a different matter and doesn't just affect the Met trains. However the retention of the Met station is for space reasons, not line capacity, as the cost of providing stabling at Watford Junction would have been so high. The overnight stabling of London Overground trains, at Watford Junction, has also had to be dealt with (partly by conversion of more stabling sidings at Wembley linked with the 5 car project).

Any potential London Midland diversions would have more to worry about from the 9 Bakerloo trains per hour from Queens Park to Stonebridge Park, than with 4 Metropolitan trains on the approach to Watford. These London Midland services would only be very rare, as the resignalling hasn't included access from the Up Fast to the DC lines, so only a shuttle Euston to/from Watford Junction would be possible without a double reversal at Watford for southbound trains. A Met line service would seem to be a better option as it could be run more frequently and could be just as fast.

Those proposing a service between Amersham and Watford need to consider the following

(1) It won't make sense from TfLs point of view to run such a service given the relatively easy option of changing at Moor Park. It also would tie up expensive S8 stock (assuming there is sufficient spare units - if not then that is yet another big thing against the proposal) that could be better used elsewhere and the quantity of people wishing to make the journey will be very small in comparison to elsewhere.

(2) From Chilterns point of view running on the Aylesbury - Watford axis poses a number of issues. As with LU, operating such a service ties up valuable diesel units (of which there is a national shortage, not helped by the latest EU emission regs meaning it is impossible to order further batches of already in service designs and the lack of interest in making a new compliment UK gauge design by train manufacturers). It also requires additional crew and cannot be done without DfT approval (Note this is to prevent franchise operators launching a new service which the DfT won't fund when the franchise changes).

(3) Watford junction capacity. Even if Chiltern did provide a service it wouldn't be at more than 1 or 2 tph at most. When the train arrives at Watford the crew would probably require a PNB leading to the unit blocking one (or at least part of) a platform till it was time to head out again. LU and LO won't have this problem as the frequency of their services and crew depots would allow the incoming crew to have their break while a fresh crew take the train out.

Now of course none of these problems are irresolvable given enough money and political will - but with the country facing further squeezes on departmental budgets over the coming years, introducing new services without a robust positive business case - especially if it involves substantial outlay in terms of new trains - simply won't happen

phil - and one might add to your list that fact that the entire service would be outside the TfL area, so not only would they have no incentive, but it would quite probably be beyond their statutory powers.

Knowing what the traffic is like when I take my car to the main dealer in Watford I suspect that there is some supressed demand for commuting. If there is enough for a direct rail service from somewhere between Ricky and Aylesbury is another matter.

trt - some semand there may be,but that's not quite the same as making it worthwhile to invest.

I doubt it would be quicker though. And reversal at Calvert, rather than a new chord, would serve perfectly well if there was a market.

the
The article not only manages to misspell Croxley, but reveals that "The Croxley Rail Link is expected to be completed by 2018, linking Watford Junction and Watford High Street with London", suggesting that the Watford Observer is not very observant, as it has failed to notice that WCML has been linking Watford Junction with London for nearly 180 years, and Watford High Street has had direct trains for just over a century (the station opened in 1862, but the direct connection to Bushey was not made until 1913).

In addition to Phil's points re Aylesbury - Watford service:

Firstly, it is outside Greater London so TfL will not be subsidising at the expense of other services that are within the boundary. A Watford - Aylesbury/Amersham service has no chance unless it is subsidised significantly by the DfT.

Although there may be demand between Aylesbury and Watford, it is tiny compared to Aylesbury/Amersham - London demand so any new service can not take a path away from a London service. Is there spare capacity at peak between Amersham - Rickmansworth for an additional service? Unlikely as this would have already been taken by a service to/from London.

Thirdly, any potential rail journey between Aylesbury and Watford would be too slow. By car Aylesbury - Watford takes about 40 minutes. By rail it would take over 55 minutes. Very few people would use the rail service over the car particularly at 1 or 2tph. Yes it would be an improvement over the bus which takes 2 hours but apart from those using free passes (of whom most would not pay to migrate to rail) very few use the 500 for end to end journeys. Most potential passengers in this area drive and own a car.

I certainly think there would be a big peak hour demand, most days in the rush hour it's slow moving traffic from Chorleywood all the way through Ricky to Watford. The Watford Health Campus will presumably reduce the amount of available parking at the hospital and would also generate demand.

As long as they can get there (loading gauge and electricity supply) and can fit without fouling points, I don't imagine it matters much how similar trains are if all you are doing is stabling them.

Considering how long I spent in a traffic queue getting from M25 J20 roundabout down to the centre of Watford on Thursday I would second that. The earlier claim of 40 minutes drive from Aylesbury seems very optimistic for a 9 or 9:30AM weekday appointment in the town centre.

Seems like a lot of unnecessary expense when the space at Watford Met is planned to be filled with S stock trains. Stabling the 378s at Wembley, as planned won't need any additional work over that already under-way. Whilst the stock may have similarities, conversion of the route into Watford Met to 3rd rail operation would need to be paid for.