Impact of Elizabeth line on other services

Other than possibly between Paddington and Baker Street/Oxford Circus I don't think Crossrail will have any significant impact on the Bakerloo Line - and part of that will depend on how interchanges with Crossrail compare with existing interchanges. e.g. from the Isle of Dogs it might still be easier for me to get to Paddington via the Jubilee and Bakerloo lines given the ease of interchange at Baker Street and the better positioning of Canary Wharf JLE relative to buses and the DLR.

I typically do Baker Street to Marylebone or Paddington at least once or twice a month throughout the year, including this summer, and for that length of journey the heat is not a factor in my decision making.

The question is not whether people will move to Crossrail when it opens (they will), but whether a significant number of them will move from the Bakerloo. While we can't know for sure until it opens, I suspect that it will be completely insignificant outside the Paddington to Oxford Circus stretch and just reduce the loadings on that stretch of the line (currently slightly above average*) to roughly average for the line.

*Based on "LU train loading data" at crowding.data.tfl.gov.uk/ the inter-station loadings for the Bakerloo line, totalled over the whole day and both directions combined are below. The data is given in 15 minute intervals where the loading is given on a scale of 0-6, but I don't know what that represents.




I've never seen this information published, I think TfL might regard it as commercially sensitive.
TfL's knowledge of the routes passengers take between A and B is only partial and mostly extrapolated from passenger surveys combined with loading data.

Some interesting nonsense in that data. 05:45 Mile End to Benthal Green gets a 5. Doesn't reach 5 again until 08:00 and stays that way unil 09:00

Likewise the busiest time of day on the WB between St Pauls and Chancery Lane is 06:00 with no other pair of stations at that time being at 2. So, to interpret, there are a whole "3" set of loading boarding at St Pauls at 06:00 and getting off at CL. Yeah, righto.

The data for the top end of the Bakerloo looks strange. It suggests the vast majority of people using the line start/finish their journeys at Harrow (more than at Elephant) and relatively few at intermediate stations. Unless it is counting passengers on Overground services originating north of Harrow.

The apparent drops in numbers at Stonebridge Park and Queens Park is presumably because some trains enter/leave service here, so the number of passengers per train falls because the number of trains is greater south of those points.

The highest section at the north end of the line is Stonebridge Park to Wembley Central. Presumably this is a combination of many people travelling to/from Wembley and fewer trains north of Stonebridge Park. The second highest is North Wembley to Wembley Central, which again fits with people travelling to/from Wembley.

Kensal Green to Queen's Park is higher than any section between there and Paddington to Edgware Road. This fits with people changing to/from trains to Euston and some trains reversing there.

I didn't explain myself clearly, sorry.

For the 06:00 to 06:15 time period, the numbers from 2 to 5 (I would upload a screenshot of the colour Excel I have, but can't find how to - another time)

To Alex F's point it does appear to be the first train of the day as there is no data beyond Lancaster Gate in the 06:00 to 06:15 slot until White City. This train presumably moves into the 06:15 to 06:30 slot


However for this (probably) single train the loads are:

Bank to St. Pauls is 2
St. Pauls to Chancery Lane is 5
Chancery Lane to Holborn is 4.

So (using your imaginary figures) 40-59 were on each car for each train as it arrived at St Pauls and 100-119 when it left. An increase of 60 per car or 60*8 = 240 per train. 

I cannot claim to being on the WB Platform at St Pauls at that time (EB maybe), but it seems unlikely to me

More data for the 06:00 to 06:15 slot below. 

Liverpool Street Bank 3

Bank St Paul's 2

St Paul's Chancery Lane 5

Chancery Lane Holborn 4

Holborn Tottenham Court Road 3

Tottenham Court Road Oxford Circus 2

Oxford Circus Bond Street 2

Bond Street Marble Arch 2

Marble Arch Lancaster Gate 2

If I remember correctly (and this may be venturing into another topic), a possible interchange between a newly built Central Line station and the London Overground at Shoreditch High Street were dependent on Crossrail being open to relieve pressure on the Central Line. Has there been anymore mention of this?