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Post by superteacher on Nov 28, 2017 10:54:56 GMT
It’s such a crush at Stratford in the evening peak these days, so much so that the staff on the platform (TFL Rail eastbound) are pushing people on to ensure that the doors can close. It’s quite amazing how much traffic seems to have grown. Have passenger numbers on the tube really dropped in the past two years? I know that TFL rail isn’t part of the tube, but to be fair the system as a whole looks just as busy as ever.
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Post by stapler on Nov 28, 2017 11:02:47 GMT
Just wait for Crossrail and when Gidea Park becomes the Hampstead of the East....
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Post by spsmiler on Nov 28, 2017 20:37:13 GMT
I've seen this too... it was never like this when I travelled on this route years ago.
I have a 1980 timetable and in 2014 compared the services in the evening rush hour.
In 1980 between 17:00 and 18:02 there were 22 eastbound departures from Liverpool Street. Four of these terminated in the bay platform at Ilford, 11 at Gidea Park and 7 at Shenfield.
The 2014 timetable showed that in the same timeframe there were just 16 departures, of which nine terminated at Gidea Park and seven at Shenfield.
This is a significant shortfall of six (6) trains!
I also looked at the trains themselves.
In 1980 services were operated by the venerable LNER designed Class 306 trains. These comprised 9 carriages which were 162.39m in length and offered 504 seats - some of which were arranged longitudinally as this increased space for standing passengers.
In 2014 services were operated by British Rail designed Class 315 trains. These comprise 8 carriages which are 158.4m in length and offer 636 seats - all of which are transverse. This seating style is not at all suitable for crush loads with standing passengers.
Is it any wonder that the trains are so grossly overcrowded and in the evening rush hour passengers are unable to board them at Stratford?
Today (2017) there are also some Class 345 Crossrail Line 1 trains which (when in their 9 car format) will be about 45 metres longer than the Class 315 trains. TfL plans to run 16 Crossrail trains per hour in the rush hours and the extra length of these 16 trains equates to 720 metres, which works out at about three and a half Class 345 trains. OK, so we must also remember that there will not be any loss of space at carriage ends (because the trains are fully walk-through) but even so it still does not make up the six train shortfall compared with the 1980 timetable!
As an aside, nowadays (2017) the bay platform at Ilford has been closed (lost to the railway). The closure was done as if offered a cheapo way to facilitate platform lengthening for 9 car Class 345 trains.
---------------------
I also compared the morning trains but alas do not have that data to hand. All I recall is that it too showed that the trains were more frequent back in the 1980's. However, from memory I know that some trains started their journeys towards London from the Ilford bay platform. For morning services the loss of the bay platform at Ilford could be mitigated (if there was the will) by starting trains from Ilford depot. These trains would provide welcome extra capacity at the three stations between Ilford and Stratford.
----------------------------------------
TfL Rail introduced a new timetable earlier this week. It is claimed that there are more trains running. To allow for shifting demographics and changes to work patterns I compared 17:00 - 19:00 (5pm - 7pm) for 1980 and 2017.
For 1980 I excluded trains which run fast to Harold Wood - the service which nowadays is part of the Greater Anglia franchise. For 2017 I do not even have this data to hand, as its on a different timetable.
1980 32 trains
17:00
17:03
17:07
17:09
17:11
17:13
17:17
17:19
17:21
17:23
17:28
17:30
17:32
17:38
17:40
17:42
17:48
17:50
17:52
17:58
18:00
18:02
18:08
18:10
18:18
18:20
18:24
18:32
18:34
18:44
18:46
18:58
2017 28 trains
17:00
17:07
17:10
17:17
17:20
17:27
17:30
17:36
17:39
17:42
17:46
17:49
17:52
17:56
18:00
18:04
18:08
18:12
18:16
18:20
18:24
18:28
18:32
18:37
18:42
18:47
18:52
18:57
Simon
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Post by John Tuthill on Nov 28, 2017 20:51:31 GMT
I've seen this too... it was never like this when I travelled on this route years ago. I have a 1980 timetable and in 2014 compared the services in the evening rush hour. In 1980 between 17:00 and 18:02 there were 22 eastbound departures from Liverpool Street. Four of these terminated in the bay platform at Ilford, 11 at Gidea Park and 7 at Shenfield. The 2014 timetable showed that in the same timeframe there were just 16 departures, of which nine terminated at Gidea Park and seven at Shenfield. This is a significant shortfall of six (6) trains! I also looked at the trains themselves. In 1980 services were operated by the venerable LNER designed Class 306 trains. These comprised 9 carriages which were 162.39m in length and offered 504 seats - some of which were arranged longitudinally as this increased space for standing passengers. In 2014 services were operated by British Rail designed Class 315 trains. These comprise 8 carriages which are 158.4m in length and offer 636 seats - all of which are transverse. This seating style is not at all suitable for crush loads with standing passengers. Is it any wonder that the trains are so grossly overcrowded and in the evening rush hour passengers are unable to board them at Stratford? Today (2017) there are also some Class 345 Crossrail Line 1 trains which (when in their 9 car format) will be about 45 metres longer than the Class 315 trains. TfL plans to run 16 Crossrail trains per hour in the rush hours and the extra length of these 16 trains equates to 720 metres, which works out at about three and a half Class 345 trains. OK, so we must also remember that there will not be any loss of space at carriage ends (because the trains are fully walk-through) but even so it still does not make up the six train shortfall compared with the 1980 timetable! As an aside, nowadays (2017) the bay platform at Ilford has been closed (lost to the railway). The closure was done as if offered a cheapo way to facilitate platform lengthening for 9 car Class 345 trains. --------------------- I also compared the morning trains but alas do not have that data to hand. All I recall is that it too showed that the trains were more frequent back in the 1980's. However, from memory I know that some trains started their journeys towards London from the Ilford bay platform. For morning services the loss of the bay platform at Ilford could be mitigated (if there was the will) by starting trains from Ilford depot. These trains would provide welcome extra capacity at the three stations between Ilford and Stratford. ---------------------------------------- TfL Rail introduced a new timetable earlier this week. I've not studied it carefully but a quick glance suggests that there are actually fewer peak rush hour trains than in 2014! As I've said before-that's progress |
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Post by sunnyday on Nov 28, 2017 21:06:40 GMT
That's quite an interesting comparison between 1980 and today.
As a driver I dread pulling into Stratford during the evening peak as you usually have to wait for a while to achieve interlock. I haven't driven since the new timetable has been introduced, but I noticed they seem to have removed the uneven nature of the evening peak timetable where there were trains 3 minutes apart then a 7 minute gap. Hopefully the even 4 minute service will help a little bit easing platform congestion.
A massive driver in traffic at Stratford has been the Westfield Centre and Canary Wharf which were not even thought about in 1980. Many more people would have continued or started their journey at Liverpool Street.
It doesn't seen that long ago (before FGE introduced the metro service) when off-peak all station trains only ran as far as Gidea Park, every 20 minutes and in 4 carriage formation.
Although Ilford bay platform is no longer around, I'm surprised more use isn't made of the Chadwell Heath turn back - I always thought it would be used more when the platform at Ilford closed. Although services could start at Ilford depot, the slow speeds out of the depot would cause congestion on the electric lines.
Another possible solution to the loss of the Ilford platform (and made the need for the turn back at Chadwell Heath redundant) could have been to make the down platform at Goodmayes into an island platform using the space between the existing platform at the Tesco store. This would allow services to terminate and start on the 'middle' platform whilst down services could use the new platform face. This would also remove some of the congestion around the Gidea Park area currently experienced during the peaks when trains have to be checked before going into the middle/carriage sidings before returning back into service. Of course - in an ideal world an extra terminating platform at Gidea Park with a dive under into the carriage sidings (like at Barking) would be a bonus, but that won't happen.
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Post by spsmiler on Nov 28, 2017 21:23:29 GMT
Sunnyday,
Thanks for that information about Goodmayes station. A replacement bay platform would be worth its weight in gold as a way of giving a terminating train extra time to be detrained without delaying following services. Possibly it was felt that the need to dig a new underpass below Goodmayes Road could not be justified. Short sighted penny pinching, in my view!
My wish was that the track for the bay platform was lengthened at Ilford, perhaps even with it extending all the way to Ilford depot. Having three tracks between the depot and the flyover would add flexibility and reduce delays when GA and other trains slowly enter / leave the depot.
Simon
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Post by snoggle on Nov 28, 2017 22:47:21 GMT
It’s such a crush at Stratford in the evening peak these days, so much so that the staff on the platform (TFL Rail eastbound) are pushing people on to ensure that the doors can close. It’s quite amazing how much traffic seems to have grown. Have passenger numbers on the tube really dropped in the past two years? I know that TFL rail isn’t part of the tube, but to be fair the system as a whole looks just as busy as ever. I don't think anyone has yet said ridership has fallen although to be fair LU's numbers for P2-7 this year are down on the same periods last year (I've ignored P1 because of the effect of Easter holiday timing). It is the rate of growth of patronage and revenue that is slower than set out in budgets (TfL) or franchise projections (TOCs). The new TfL business plan has flattened out the patronage and revenue expected on LU for the next couple of years. The projections for Crossrail are higher than in the previous plan but some of that merely reflects the extra services out west that have been agreed since the last plan. A rise is also predicted on the Overground because of increased service levels due in the next couple of years. Looking more specifically at TfL Rail I think a few obvious things are going on. 1. TfL fares have made travel more affordable. 2. Growth in and around Stratford has created more demand. This will carry on as development continues. 3. Stratford is now an immensely busy hub - vastly different than even 15 years ago never mind 30. 4. There will almost certainly have been some transfer from buses to rail given the impact of cycle lanes and other works on bus journey times. 5. Putting the line on the Tube Map will almost certainly have generated travel just as it did for the Overground lines. I am not convinced by arguments, which have been done before, that the peak frequency of trains is the main factor about congestion at Stratford. The sheer scale of demand is unlike anything from the 1980s. Even modestly frequent services like the Greater Anglia services that run north via Tottenham Hale are carrying very good loads and that's a route had all its trains withdrawn in the 1980s. |
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Post by sunnyday on Nov 29, 2017 8:30:29 GMT
The good thing about Goodmayes is that no digging would be needed as a line did used to go that way to access the old goods yard. Next time you do the journey, just before you enter the platform, look left and you’ll see where this line accessed the yard.
It’s such a shame we didn’t know then what we know now as the land where the retail park is now would have made an excellent Crossrail depot.
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Post by whistlekiller2000 on Nov 29, 2017 9:22:26 GMT
The good thing about Goodmayes is that no digging would be needed as a line did used to go that way to access the old goods yard. Next time you do the journey, just before you enter the platform, look left and you’ll see where this line accessed the yard. It’s such a shame we didn’t know then what we know now as the land where the retail park is now would have made an excellent Crossrail depot. Do you mean the area south of the station beyond the fast lines? These pictures are from 40 odd years ago and linked from the Blue-pelican-railway site showing that area.   |
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Post by sunnyday on Nov 29, 2017 11:00:31 GMT
No. It would be the area immediately to the North by the slow, Electric lines. There was a really good picture of the site but I can’t find it at the moment.
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Post by ted672 on Nov 29, 2017 14:12:18 GMT
Whatever the cause, the situation at Stratford is not particularly great, not helped by "way out" signs being illuminated when the way out is not being used at such, i.e. platforms 6 and 8 western stairs. I'm sure it's not impossible to have switchable signage to direct people to keep left and use the "one way" system that is imposed during the PM peak. And now that the 17:17 is also a 345, I'm no longer guaranteed a seat so have to stand all the way to Romford. So much for progress indeed!
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Post by whistlekiller2000 on Nov 29, 2017 14:23:59 GMT
Whatever the cause, the situation at Stratford is not particularly great, not helped by "way out" signs being illuminated when the way out is not being used at such, i.e. platforms 6 and 8 western stairs. I'm sure it's not impossible to have switchable signage to direct people to keep left and use the "one way" system that is imposed during the PM peak. And now that the 17:17 is also a 345, I'm no longer guaranteed a seat so have to stand all the way to Romford. So much for progress indeed! There'll be another two carriages for you in a year or so Ted. Always look on the bright side of life!  |
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Post by ted672 on Nov 30, 2017 19:19:22 GMT
I do try! Trouble is many trains will arrive at Stratford full from the West End, so I'll need to check the ones that start at Liverpool Street. Time will tell!
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Post by spsmiler on Dec 4, 2017 17:16:37 GMT
BTW, when HS1 opens its possible that 'peak overcrowding' (the title of this thread) will include Euston station.
Maybe the preventative solution would be for the trains which will terminate at Paddington to be extended to Old Oak Common, where (as I understand it) HS1 will have a station. That way passengers could be encouraged to use Crossrail trains (rather than Euston station) for onward travel around London. If the Old Oak Common station was planned properly there could be short walking distances between Crossrail & HS1 at this station. (admittedly a tall order of a suggestion)
Simon
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cso
Posts: 1,043 
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Post by cso on Dec 4, 2017 17:26:50 GMT
By HS1 do you mean HS2, given that HS1 is already open?
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Post by snoggle on Dec 4, 2017 20:08:38 GMT
BTW, when HS1 opens its possible that 'peak overcrowding' (the title of this thread) will include Euston station. Maybe the preventative solution would be for the trains which will terminate at Paddington to be extended to Old Oak Common, where (as I understand it) HS1 will have a station. That way passengers could be encouraged to use Crossrail trains (rather than Euston station) for onward travel around London. If the Old Oak Common station was planned properly there could be short walking distances between Crossrail & HS1 at this station. (admittedly a tall order of a suggestion) Simon Well the issue around peak overcrowding at Euston centres entirely on whether you believe HS2 will be able to fill what will be long trains. It also further rests on whether you think all the passengers will immediately dump themselves in the deep tube at Euston. This is unlikely as people disperse from terminal stations in a variety of ways today and there's little reason to expect it will differ in future. I am afraid I am a tad sceptical about the dire warnings of the tube failing to work unless CR2 is built. I think tube station overcrowding is at far greater risk from LU's own programme of line upgrades which seek to pump ever increasing numbers in and out of a lot of constrained stations. Regrettably LU is not in a position to fund a large scale programme of station capacity enhancements which would help underpin the medium to long term success of the line upgrades. Not a lot of point of new trains whizzing along far faster than today if people take 10 minutes to get from platform to street due to chronic station congestion. I understand that the Crossrail "Paddington terminators" will run to / from Old Oak Common when the CR station is in place. Whether people opt to change from HS2 there is a matter for the future and will no doubt depend heavily on the efficacy of the interchange and relative journey times. |
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Post by spsmiler on Dec 4, 2017 20:20:32 GMT
By HS1 do you mean HS2, given that HS1 is already open? Apologies, I did mean HS2. LOL, its only Monday and already I have the Friday feeling! Simon |
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