Frequencies and services

What won't go down too well is the proposed removal of the peak time semi fasts to Gidea Park and Shenfield.

Maybe, but if you want to get to Liverpool Street from, say, Gidea Park, you will be adding on 3 stops between there and Stratford. If you stay on Crossrail, you then hav an additional stop at Whitechapel.

As a frequent user of peak trains out of Liverpool Street, I think the term semi fasts hardly applies.

They seem to be run to spread the loads across trains and crawl a lot of the way because of the crowded tracks.

This won't be so necessary as the trains are longer and will be walk through.

There will be more places to change which should also reduce dwell times at Stratford.

It is a VERY long time since I commuted into Liverpool Street but I have commuted from Romford both before and after they stopped switching the fasts to the Main Line. Since then I have used peak services on an occasional basis until about 5 years ago. To be honest my experience is that, at peak intervals, the stopping pattern has little effect on actual end to end run time.

If anyone gets to see the Ilford Recorder newspaper dated 17th March 2016 they will see the headline (and inside article) about boarding trains at Ilford as being "survival of the fittest". Its that difficult! The problem is that there are just not enough trains. With passenger numbers expected to surge when Crossrail opens so even TfL are said to be concerned if the services cope.

The genesis of my being in the paper is that a week or so ago someone from the newspaper tweeted a request for comments about the situation at Ilford, and I replied. This culminated in a telephone discussion on Wednesday just minutes before press time. At the time I could not answer their questions but since then I've researched and supplied information which I assume will be used as a letter to the editor in the next edition (on Thursday just before Easter).

One of the things I said was how useful it is to have trains which commence their journeys at Ilford, as the passengers who choose to use these trains will find them much easier to board. (I put it that way so as not to sound judgemental towards the passengers who decide to use other trains). I hope they publish this, and I hope that TfL still run these trains in the am peak once Crossrail has opened*. I also spoke up in favour of fast / all stations trains as the non-stop trains mean that passengers wont be bothered again by more boarding passengers until they get to Stratford.

My research also showed the unspoken reason why the trains are so full. Its not just that the passenger numbers have increased, nor that the Class 315 trains are a little shorter than the trains they replaced (Class 306), but that the older trains had a seating layout that allowed for more standing passengers and there were 20 of them between 8 am and 8:59 am whereas nowadays there are just 16 trains in the same hour.

I also pointed out that the new Class 345 trains will be much longer and with significantly fewer seats will be able to carry 1,500 tightly packed passengers. Which should mean that everyone (at Ilford) will be able to board, although what I did not say is that passengers Manor Park - Maryland may find that even with all trains stopping they are still too crowded to board!

I'll share my full submission to the newspaper after it has been printed. Note that I am not being paid for this. Its a one-off.

*Since platform lengthening will require the bay platform to be closed I suggested that they run direct from Ilford Depot to platform 3.

Simon

ps, in the 1980's I regularly travelled on off-peak non-stop trains which took just 12 minutes to get to Liverpool St, and 11 minutes from Liv St to Ilford. These trains did not even serve Stratford. When Crossrail opens there will be 5 intermediate stops. The only time advantage will be west of Liverpool St, especially to Oxford Circus, Paddington...

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Edit to add: (I hope this link works)

www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/ilford_train_chaos_survival_of_the_fittest_at_station_as_commuters_to_liverpool_street_face_overcrowding_and_delays_1_4459208

Stratford station in the evening is hellish. Again, its not just longer trains but more trains that are needed. The present-day 16 an hour are not enough. In 1980 there were 21 trains between 17:00 and 17:59. If there is not enough platform capacity at Liverpool St then adding a Stratford - Ilford shuttle will help. Things are that desperate. Had the platform not been widened for the Olympics it would have had to be closed at times for dangerous overcrowding.

Generally Holborn/Aldwych area

Re: the newspaper letters page described above, below is the letter that I wrote and the Ilford Recorder published.

Simon

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My research has found that the timetable currently being used by TfL Rail does indeed shortchange the people of Ilford.

For the mornings I looked at 8am - 8:59am. In 1980 there were 20 trains which travelled from Ilford to Liverpool Street station. Nowadays (2016) there are just 16 trains. In both 1980 and today the morning rush hour service includes trains that start their journeys at Ilford station (platform 5). This is to be welcomed as it means that the people of Ilford who choose to use these trains have a better chance of being able to board a train - and even get a seat!

For the evenings I looked at 5pm - 5.59pm (17:00 - 17:59). In 1980 Ilford was served by 21 trains, including some which ended their journey at Ilford stations' platform 5. Nowadays (2016) Ilford is served by just 16 trains, none of which end their journeys at Ilford station.


When comparing service patterns I found that morning and evening rush hour services in both 1980 and today comprise a mix of 'all stations' and non-stop / fast trains. This serves the people of Ilford better, as it means that by choosing a non-stop train we are not disturbed during the journey between Ilford and Stratford and that this journey will be over in the shortest possible time. The real issue is that TfL need to run *more* trains.


I also looked at the trains themselves.

In 1980 services were operated by the venerable LNER designed Class 306 trains. Each train comprised nine carriages, were approximately 161 metres in length and offered 504 seats - some of which were arranged longitudinally, which increased space for standing passengers.

Nowadays services are operated by British Rail designed Class 315 trains. These comprise eight carriages which are about 158 metres in length and offer 636 seats - all of which are transverse, which means that there is less space for standing passengers.

So, in short, in 1980 British Rail ran more trains, which could carry a greater number of passengers, than is the situation today.


In the future, when Crossrail Elizabeth Line services commence, TfL intend to recast the timetable so that up to 12 trains an hour will travel through the tunnels plus an additional 4 trains an hour will continue to go to Liverpool Street mainline station. Crossrail will use brand new Class 345 trains which have 9 carriages, 450 seats and an estimated total passenger capacity of 1,500 tightly packed passengers. Because these trains will be 200 metres in length platforms 3 and 4 will need to be extended, unfortunately the latter will be over the access track for platform 5 so this will have to be closed. TfL have already said that the expected increase in passenger numbers might mean that the service is full from the
day it opens!

TfL also plan to make all trains call at all stations, which for the reason stated above will disadvantage the people of Ilford.

The only way to ensure that passengers are not left behind at stations because they could not board the train will be if TfL add more trains to the service.

It will also help if TfL continued to operate morning peak hour trains which start their journeys in Ilford, albeit from Ilford depot directly to Platform 3, plus a mix of non-stop and all stations trains. The times of the trains that start at Ilford should be advertised with passengers advised that as the train will be empty they should find it easier to board.

Well it's going to be interesting to see what happens with running a mixed fleet of 315s and 345s (until late 2019) and how people react to the 345s with their much reduced seating capacity. If Crossrail gets a demand surge as C2C have had then they may be able to cope in the short term. However it will be difficult for TfL to really understand what's happening because of the phased opening sequence and the time it will take for journey patterns to adjust and then settle to give a clear base load of demand and identfy growth. I expect West London is going to be the bigger problem area given the new trains will unlock capacity and could trigger a surge from suppressed demand. There is less scope to grow the service in West London given the limited track capacity / paths.