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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2013 16:04:33 GMT
Saw this snippet from Dave Hill's article in the Guard today (see here). Didn't sound too good when I read it, as I thought given the 10% increase in total London capacity you hear banded about regularly, Crossrail 1 would provide a bit of breathing space for a good few years at least. Seeing as capacity improvements in other lines are shaky at best (see London Reconnections recent blog posts), what provision is there for Crossrail capacity improvements, are longer trains in the offing? Increased frequency? And more importantly where is the funding going to come from?
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Post by superteacher on Dec 31, 2013 16:55:22 GMT
When the Victoria line opened, it didn't take long for it to be at, and beyond, its design capacity. The Jubilee line extension was similar. There is just a seemingly insatiable demand for public transport which shows no sign of slowing down.
it"s a similar issue to building extra lanes on motorways. The traffic seems to fill the available capacity. When Crossrail does open, I can foresee the Central line between Holborn and Stratford being as crowded as ever.
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Post by suncloud on Jan 1, 2014 7:38:36 GMT
wouldn't surprise me at all.. commuters on gwml and geml will love not having to change on to underground to reach their final destinations, and people will change from tube at locations like Stratford if crossrail will offer a quicker journey. it will give some relief to other transport corridors, most significantly the central line (cross rails opening best window for some upgrade works?)
ultimately its going to be full because it will fulfil its design objective of more direct routes, fewer interchanges and faster journeys.
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Post by revupminster on Jan 1, 2014 9:49:44 GMT
As it is replacing and not supplementing existing Metro services it will fill up. The spare capacity at Liverpool Street may be able to be utilised but has the line got anymore room beyond Bethnal Green? The Chingford and Enfield branches could be enhanced. Maybe that is the idea.
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Post by snoggle on Jan 1, 2014 11:54:39 GMT
Saw this snippet from Dave Hill's article in the Guard today (see here). Didn't sound too good when I read it, as I thought given the 10% increase in total London capacity you hear banded about regularly, Crossrail 1 would provide a bit of breathing space for a good few years at least. Seeing as capacity improvements in other lines are shaky at best (see London Reconnections recent blog posts), what provision is there for Crossrail capacity improvements, are longer trains in the offing? Increased frequency? And more importantly where is the funding going to come from? There are a few options that might assist with Crossrail expansion but there is no certainty yet as I think some of the final decisions are yet to be taken. 1. Trains can be extended. I understand the platforms in the central core are designed to take trains that are two carriages longer (12 instead of 10 I think - not 100% certain about train lengths). 2. In line with practice for the Overground transformation I would expect TfL to secure contract options to both extend the Crossrail trains and also to buy far more of them. Clearly funding will be an issue but we talking about 6-7 years hence when hopefully TfL's budget will be a damn sight more stable than now. 3. There was a hint on Twitter a few months ago that Crossrail services into Heathrow would be doubled in frequency. This would bolster service in West London where FGW are already hopelessly overloaded. I expect Crossrail will unleash a torrent of suppressed demand on this corridor meaning more services and trains will be required. Similarly I think people are going to be shocked about the scale of demand on the Abbey Wood branch of Crossrail - it opens first and I expect South Eastern commuters to divert in droves (provided Crossrail is reliable). I also expect travel patterns in SE London to shift hugely with people railheading to Abbey Wood and Woolwich in the way they currently do with North Greenwich. 4. We don't yet know the capability of the signalling system and how many trains it will be capable of handling on the central core. I expect there will be a fair amount of "headroom" to allow more trains to run but clearly you need to have siding and turnback capacity too. 5. There is the long vaunted possibility of extending the Crossrail service to Reading when GW electrification progresses that far. This would give an opportunity to purchase more rolling stock. The other thing to watch is the extent of off peak travel. If there is little differentiation between peak and off peak demand this may also create pressure for a bigger fleet of trains. Clearly none of the above is set in stone and speculation on my part. However if Crossrail experiences even half of the demand growth that the Overground has had (a mere 80% growth, the Overground has had 160% growth) then things will have to change pretty quickly. As you say the key is money but provided Crossrail works well then there will be huge stakeholder support from business and politicians for further improvement which should unlock some funding.
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Post by grahamhewett on Jan 1, 2014 13:07:32 GMT
snoggle - in NSE days, we did some research as to what drove the demand for train services. The first order factor was, of course, Central London Employment, but the second order factor by a long chalk wasn't price, nor road congestion, but the volume of train service offered. (I put that result away in a very dark cupboard lest HMT found it...). The finding was entirely consistent with some previous work by DTp on the demand for road capacity and also RATP's findings based on the impact of the RER. So, yes, if there is a lot of suppressed demand out there, XR will fill pretty quickly. Given the growth in London's population, I suspect there will be no shortage of suppressed demand. More trains? Longer trains? Maybe difficult if the XR stock is fixed formation with the functions distributed around the cars. Doubled frequency to Heathrow? Most bidders for GW would like to see the back of HEX as a waste of capacity and replace it with more GW trains. Whether that will be allowed will probably be a political rather than a technical matter. The peak/ offpeak issue will be tricky for XR as the round trip timing is likely to be so long that the gap between winding down the morning peak and winding up the evening peak will be quite short - as with TLK. The temptation will be to bridge the interpeak with an only slightly reduced service - doubly so, since, unlike say SWT, the trains will not be required to visit stabling points to drop off a set or two.
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Post by crusty54 on Jan 1, 2014 16:45:15 GMT
Railheading to/from North Greenwich will continue as it is in Zone 2 and Travelcard holders get the bus journey free.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2014 8:34:04 GMT
Hopefully many more crossrail services to Heathrow will allow the Heathrow express services to be withdrawn allowing the GW to run an additional 4tph between London & Reading continuing to perhaps Didcot thus allowing more long distance services to skip Didcot speeding up journey times.
At least on GW bidder put forward a direct Bristol - Bedford service using 110-115mph emu's allowing the return of direct services between Bristol/Bath & Oxford this would serve didcot so passengerss could easily change at Swindon.
Back to Crossrail I can see eventually there will be more peopel calling for a full 4tph service to Reading perhapps allowing the withdrawel of the GW semi-fast service which is proposed to run over the relief lines. the relief lines can go over to crossrail full time with the exception of the peak hour services to Paddington from Henley & Bourne end.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jan 4, 2014 11:16:33 GMT
At least on GW bidder put forward a direct Bristol - Bedford service using 110-115mph emu's allowing the return of direct services between Bristol/Bath & Oxford this would serve didcot so passengerss could easily change at Swindon. That must be way in the future - probably beyond the end of the next franchise period, unless the trains are to go via the North London Line (reversing somewhere near Gospel Oak to reach the MML) what are the timescales for re-opening the section between Bicester and Bletchley - and when would it be electrified?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2014 13:57:21 GMT
2018-2019 was the date put forward by the DFT for the Oxford - Bletchley with 2020 to Bedford and onwards to Sheffield/Nottingham
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jan 4, 2014 14:05:36 GMT
2018-2019 was the date put forward by the DFT for the Oxford - Bletchley with 2020 to Bedford and onwards to Sheffield/Nottingham Given the glacial progress being made on connecting the (diesel) lines at Bicester to allow a through service from oxford to Marylebone, I'm not holding my breath that Oxford to Bedford will be possible, let alone by electric train, by the end of the decade
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 17:28:04 GMT
Just looked at the timetabling for Crossrail, 4tph peak to/from Heathrow? 14 tph (from the east) terminating at Paddington? They can't be serious can they?
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Post by Chris M on Jan 7, 2014 18:40:30 GMT
Well if the aim is to see how many people you can fit into Paddington Crossrail station then I'd say that's a pretty good timetable!
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Post by melikepie on Jan 7, 2014 18:58:19 GMT
Just looked at the timetabling for Crossrail, 4tph peak to/from Heathrow? 14 tph (from the east) terminating at Paddington? They can't be serious can they? Isn't the timetabling of current Heathrow services 4tph?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 19:35:52 GMT
Just looked at the timetabling for Crossrail, 4tph peak to/from Heathrow? 14 tph (from the east) terminating at Paddington? They can't be serious can they? Isn't the timetabling of current Heathrow services 4tph? Yes.
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Post by melikepie on Jan 7, 2014 19:44:14 GMT
So if they are changing from 4tph to 4tph, I'm not sure how that equals a frequency increase
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Post by domh245 on Jan 7, 2014 19:52:50 GMT
Aren't they running it in addition to the existing service, which, If I'm correct, will make it 4tph crossrail 4tph heathrow express 4tph heathrow connect
16tph through heathrow central
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 19:54:27 GMT
It doesn't... But Heathrow Express will still continue once Crossrail is up and running in 2018/19 if I'm not mistaken?
I think 4tph to/from Heathrow-Central London is derisory, factor in Picc travellers switching to a better train service, it's Oyster fared & the oft-mentioned 'growth in Heathrow'
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 19:57:06 GMT
Aren't they running it in addition to the existing service, which, If I'm correct, will make it 4tph crossrail 4tph heathrow express 4tph heathrow connect 16tph through heathrow central Right, but who in their right mind would fork out the extra £££ given the Express is essentially the same service and the Connect only saves you around 10 minutes and neither take you any further beyond Paddington!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2014 20:00:47 GMT
There is plenty of capacity at Heathrow for Crossrail trains, it just needs a re-jig of the NR timetables as most of those services sit for quite some time. Have they abandoned the new tunnels proposal? there was going to be a direct link from 1,2,3 to 4 and then 5 wasn't there?
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Post by melikepie on Jan 8, 2014 1:18:38 GMT
4+4+4=16?
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Post by grahamhewett on Jan 8, 2014 10:48:21 GMT
I very much doubt that HEX will survive the opening of XR - already the GWML bidders are eyeing up the 4 fast paths into Paddington for more much needed capacity. Not that HAL will go with out a fight, but if the choice is more capacity or aa duplicate airport link, I suspect capacity will win.
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Post by arun on Jan 8, 2014 16:58:10 GMT
Concept of Crossrail? Some few years ago I attended a LURS evening meeting when Ken livingstone's then American[?] Tfl director was giving a presentation on Crossrail. He made the point that the idea of CR was not just to get people from one side of London to the other. I questioned him on this having said that surely what was needed to avoid clogging up London mainline termini and LT/NR interchanges was to have an orbital rail version of the M25 so that anyone wanting to go from say, Oxford to Dover [or East Anglia etc] would not have to disembark and trudge across London and add to the transitee mass in central London but could go via a fast orbital route. He laughed and stated that the point of Crossrail was to get people into central london where they would spend money on food, magazines, taxis etc., whilst waiting for the train to take them on the next part of the journey. It was not being built to make the journey easier/quicker for people who needed to transit London! The question then arises, "Do we need to have so many CR stations in Central London when there would be less congestion if the stations were only built at NR interchanges?"
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 21:05:24 GMT
Think of Crossrail as a Parisian RER line. Seems a bit pointless to spend billions building crossrail to only have stations at Liverpool St and Paddington and ignoring the 4 stations inbetween.
Firstly, given that new stations in central London have been pretty rare for a while, the 4 stations provide destinations where people want to go. Current commuters have to disembark at Paddington, Liverpool Street and Stratford and up on the Tube. Second, the useful interchanges, Farringdon & Tottenham Court Rd (when Crossrail 2 happens) most notably. (I'm sure there are plenty more good reasons, but I'll stop here..)
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Post by grahamhewett on Jan 9, 2014 22:20:31 GMT
arun - if you were serving only Paddington and LST with Crossrail, then you'd hardly need Crossrail - in fact, the Treasury actually tried developing the argument in an effort to cut the project's costs, and even they accepted that the idea wasn't ahem intellectually respectable. In fact, as has been extensively discussed here, the looming problem in central London is a shortage of station capacity and more stations are needed to distribute the traffic, rather than concentrating it on a few stations already near to bursting.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jan 9, 2014 23:11:06 GMT
The point of Crossrail, Thameslink, RERs and the like is twofold: firstly to distribute people over several city centre stations instead of just one, and secondly to avoid the need for a large terminus, and lengthy turnrounds, in expensive city-centre real estate. The former was achieved to some extent by many railway companies with multiple termini (GER, LBSCR, LCDR, LNWR and, particularly, SER) and the Metropolitan's initial aim was to get GNR and GWR traffic into the City, but passing right through London had to wait for the Tubes.
The number of people wanting to go from Maidenhead to Shenfield, or Brighton to Bedford, could not possibly justify a cross town line on its own - certainly not enough to justify an orbital route. The number going from Brighton to Kings Cross, or Blackfriars to Bedford, or Liverpool Street to Maidenhead, or Romford to Paddington, is much greater.
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Post by Hassaan on Jan 10, 2014 0:28:01 GMT
Isn't the timetabling of current Heathrow services 4tph? Yes. So if they are changing from 4tph to 4tph, I'm not sure how that equals a frequency increase Heathrow Connect is currently 2tph, not 4 (and Heathrow Express is 4tph). Currently on the Heathrow Connect route we also have the following FGW services: Southall: 2tph FGW service (so a total of 4tph) Hayes & Harlington: 4tph FGW (2 x calling at Ealing Broadway but not Southall, 2 x include Southall) (6tph total) West Ealing: 2tph FGW (from Greenford, also calls at Acton Main Line) (total 4tph) Ealing Broadway: 6tph FGW service (2 x Greenford, 2 x that call at both H&H and Southall, and 2 x that call at Hayes & Harlington but not Southall) (total 8tph) Hanwell only has Heathrow Connect call there, while Acton Main Line doesn't and instead has the 2tph Greenford services
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 2:48:18 GMT
Firstly, given that new stations in central London have been pretty rare for a while, the 4 stations provide destinations where people want to go. But these aren't "new" stations, merely enlarged existing ones which might add to pax volume issues, eg overflowing interchange platforms. Plenty of areas in central London could do with new access.
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Post by grahamhewett on Jan 10, 2014 9:00:31 GMT
@citi - indeed so - the case for new stations to distribute the load is very strong indeed (Note, the capacity of a station is limited by the ability of the escalators to carry the punters to the surface - in a typical double-ended station with three banks of escalators at each end, the limit is 1800 people per bank per hour, so 7200 p/hr in the peak direction - there's a number of stations where that figure is already approached...). If you map the zone 1 areas where the station spacing is thinnest, areas like Belgravia, Mayfair, Fitzrovia and Mount Pleasant stand out. At the risk of being accused of being a closet crayonista, these suggest the usefulness of a s w/ n e routeing through the centre different to that proposed for XR2, which does nothing for station overcrowding/better access.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jan 10, 2014 9:29:38 GMT
The problem is that a new station may relieve pressure on the stations nearby, but it may also attract new custom to the railway from its immediate hinterland - which may be less than helpful if the line is already at full stretch - not to mention the delays to existing passengers that the new station would cause: for example at Mt Pleasant, it might reduce the number of people using Kings Cross, but it would also attract people to the Circle Line who currently use the No 63 bus. So the new station may create one problem at the same time as solving another. (the converse reason applied to closing places like Brompton Road - very little traffic was lost, and Knightsbridge and South Ken could cope with all the passengers displaced.
I do agree though that running XR2 between all the known congestion points, as current proposals would have it, is hardly likely to improve matters. There are plenty of people currently clogging up Kings Cross, TCR etc by using them merely as interchanges. Running XR2 via Sloane Square, Knightsbridge, Marble Arch, Goodge Street, Russell Square and Angel would improve the connectivity of the network as a whole, and make the network more robust in the event of any particular node in the network being closed down. (Both the designers of the Victoria and Jubilee lines recognised this, making new interchanges at the hitherto minor stations at Warren Street, Bond Street, Green Park and Westminster. (Given the current shutdown of Embankment, isn't it good that the Jubilee calls at Westminster, giving an alternative way from Waterloo to the District Line?)
It is good practice in both the telecoms and power industries not to run all your lines through the same locations. The same should be true of transport planning. This point was lost on Beeching, and it seems also on the planners of XR2
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