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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2009 11:13:59 GMT
Construction companies working on the £16bn Crossrail scheme are bracing themselves for a suspension of work on the project if the Conservatives win the next general election. Any new Tory Government is expected to review Crossrail's future as it looks to rein back on public sector spending to rebalance the country's finances. And consultants and contractors already working on the scheme are preparing for bad news. One senior project source told Contract Journal: "Of course there are worries about spending levels after the next election. "If there is a change of government they will have another look at Crossrail which could mean some period of pause and delay on the project." Construction work officially started on Crossrail in May when Laing O'Rourke's Expanded division began digging on a new station at Canary Wharf. Demolition work is also underway around Tottenham Court Road while a raft of consultants have been appointed ahead of main construction work starting on the tunnelled sections in 2010. London Mayor Boris Johnson is believed to be concerned whether the capital can afford to fund Crossrail and complete the ambitious Tube modernisation plans. The source said: "It's simply a case of there not being enough money for both. There could be some difficult choices to be made in the next year or so for the future of transport in London. His fears have been echoed privately throughout the industry. One contractor planning to bid for work on the project said: "I won't believe the project is definitely going ahead until they get the TBMs in." Meanwhile, Transport for London revealed moves this week to reduce the funding gap for Tube upgrade works by £2.5bn, by deferring work, cutting 1,000 jobs and changing engineering contracts in the wake of Metronet's collapse. Under the new budget plans for three quarters of the Tube network, £800m will be saved by postponing the improvements to 50 stations. There will be a £500m saving from new terms with suppliers, and a further £200m cost reduction from carrying out some projects more efficiently. www.contractjournal.com/Articles/2009/06/24/69001/crossrail-firms-braced-for-delays.html
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Post by 21146 on Jun 27, 2009 12:36:52 GMT
Maybe the S Stock order could be scaled-back, Eurofighter-style, thus not wasting the money spent on the D Stock refurb?
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Post by cetacean on Jun 27, 2009 13:20:49 GMT
What a stupid scaremongering thread title.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2009 13:32:42 GMT
Apologies, I should have called it "Crossrail could be stopped if Tories get in!"
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2009 13:55:26 GMT
They should scale it down to tube line - something like Heathrow to Stratford/Woowich.
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Post by Alight on Jun 27, 2009 21:08:10 GMT
I think that is not a bad idea Alex.
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Post by Dmitri on Jun 28, 2009 9:36:19 GMT
They should scale it down to tube line - something like Heathrow to Stratford/Woowich. I do not think a brand new tube gauge line is a good idea. SSL gauge... why not?
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Post by cetacean on Jun 28, 2009 10:33:51 GMT
They should scale it down to tube line - something like Heathrow to Stratford/Woowich. That would require 90% of the expensive bits of infrastructure, plus 6 tracking the GWML, plus finding somewhere to put terminating platforms at Stratford. There aren't any major buts of Crossrail you can remove without the whole scheme not making sense anymore.
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Ben
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Post by Ben on Jun 28, 2009 12:55:15 GMT
Theres still a reasonably strong group of people that recon it didnt make sense anyway!
It should be built as a monument to how 'politics' fails, how red tape strangles, and how modern English public sector works are shameful, woeful, embarrising, headache inducing, rainforrest destroying...
In fact, there aren't words strong enough to describe how bloated and pathetic the process of getting it started was.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2009 15:45:37 GMT
Construction companies working on the £16bn Crossrail scheme are bracing themselves for a suspension of work on the project if the Conservatives win the next general election. Any new Tory Government is expected to review Crossrail's future as it looks to rein back on public sector spending to rebalance the country's finances. And consultants and contractors already working on the scheme are preparing for bad news. One senior project source told Contract Journal: "Of course there are worries about spending levels after the next election. "If there is a change of government they will have another look at Crossrail which could mean some period of pause and delay on the project." Construction work officially started on Crossrail in May when Laing O'Rourke's Expanded division began digging on a new station at Canary Wharf. Demolition work is also underway around Tottenham Court Road while a raft of consultants have been appointed ahead of main construction work starting on the tunnelled sections in 2010. London Mayor Boris Johnson is believed to be concerned whether the capital can afford to fund Crossrail and complete the ambitious Tube modernisation plans. The source said: "It's simply a case of there not being enough money for both. There could be some difficult choices to be made in the next year or so for the future of transport in London. His fears have been echoed privately throughout the industry. One contractor planning to bid for work on the project said: "I won't believe the project is definitely going ahead until they get the TBMs in." Meanwhile, Transport for London revealed moves this week to reduce the funding gap for Tube upgrade works by £2.5bn, by deferring work, cutting 1,000 jobs and changing engineering contracts in the wake of Metronet's collapse. Under the new budget plans for three quarters of the Tube network, £800m will be saved by postponing the improvements to 50 stations. There will be a £500m saving from new terms with suppliers, and a further £200m cost reduction from carrying out some projects more efficiently. www.contractjournal.com/Articles/2009/06/24/69001/crossrail-firms-braced-for-delays.htmlThey are not going to stop the project now, they have already started construction and issuing CPOs.....oh hang on, <thumps forehead> this is the incompetent British government we are talking about here, how silly of me!!!
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Post by mikebuzz on Jun 28, 2009 18:29:12 GMT
Jubilee from Charing X to Aldwych x 100 is what we could end up with.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2009 20:37:11 GMT
They are not going to stop the project now, they have already started construction and issuing CPOs.....oh hang on, <thumps forehead> this is the incompetent British government we are talking about here, how silly of me!!! I suggest you read the article again, especially the first line. This is nothing to do with the current Government. This is a prediction of what will happen if the Conservatives win the next general election
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Post by kewgardensteleport on Jun 28, 2009 21:16:18 GMT
I suggest you read the article again, especially the first line. This is nothing to do with the current Government. This is a prediction of what will happen if the Conservatives win the next general election Sounds like the best reason ever to vote Tory. Except they'd probably bottle it...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2009 21:53:16 GMT
Um hate to go against the grain, but I think it would be catastrophic for London if Crossrail were cancelled. Political momentum on the only large scale transport project would be entirley lost, no new project would be forthcoming and it wouldn't release extra funding for Tube upgrades either as the capital would be used to pay back National debt. So London gets nothing new. That nation gets nothing new, capital investment decreases and we go back to Thatcherite years where fat-cats get fatter but there's no investment.
Having said that, I will probably vote Tory, but that's more to do with my stark dislike for Labour than any affinity for the other brand of Popularist political meandering that our 2 party system currently offers.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2009 6:54:16 GMT
They are not going to stop the project now, they have already started construction and issuing CPOs.....oh hang on, <thumps forehead> this is the incompetent British government we are talking about here, how silly of me!!! I suggest you read the article again, especially the first line. This is nothing to do with the current Government. This is a prediction of what will happen if the Conservatives win the next general election Sorry, should have made it clearer that what I am suggesting is that it is both Labour and Tories who are incompetent, not just Labour!
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Post by DrOne on Jun 29, 2009 13:20:19 GMT
It would be disappointing but not altogether surprising if this were to happen. However I do think the ELL, Thameslink works and tube upgrades should all be completed in preference to Crossrail. As others have mentioned the Abbey Wood branch is pretty crucial for the whole project so an abbreviated Crossrail is possible, which would then better serve the Canary Wharf traffic. Unfortunately Shenfield would be for another day but the benefits would be significant as that would be a starter for Chelney, then going on to sort out the Piccadilly/District branches in the west. Icing on the cake would be a district extension/tram to tackle the Greenford branch line.
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Post by Chris M on Jun 29, 2009 13:30:37 GMT
The problem with that though, as someone else has said, is that if the money isn't spent on Crossrail it won't be spent on other things instead. The options are Crossrail or nothing, and given those choices Crossrail is hands down the winner.
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Post by mikebuzz on Jun 29, 2009 14:36:59 GMT
Agreed. We're talking about 3 things really:
1. A lot of the money involved will be private. It won't end up on any other public scheme.
2. Any money from the government will just mean less debt or will be swallowed up by something else. Chances are it won't be a rail infrastructure project.
3. New rail projects will be avoided like the plague because they will be viewed as unpopular and seen as only having cost and not benefit.
We've been here before in previous decades. Let's not go through all that again.
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Post by max on Jun 29, 2009 14:55:59 GMT
As others have mentioned the Abbey Wood branch is pretty crucial for the whole project so an abbreviated Crossrail is possible, which would then better serve the Canary Wharf traffic. Unfortunately Shenfield would be for another day but the benefits would be significant as that would be a starter for Chelney, then going on to sort out the Piccadilly/District branches in the west. Icing on the cake would be a district extension/tram to tackle the Greenford branch line. I was always under the impression that the whole point of Crossrail was to stop the Shenfield Line from overloading the Central Line. If that goes then the project becomes well-and truly warped.
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Post by DrOne on Jun 29, 2009 15:19:04 GMT
All of the above agreed which is why I said it would be disappointing. Of course I'd like for the project to go ahead as it is but I was just exploring possibilities other than the project being scrapped in its entirety (which was, after all, the title of the thread).
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Post by mikebuzz on Jun 29, 2009 16:05:13 GMT
I was always under the impression that the whole point of Crossrail was to stop the Shenfield Line from overloading the Central Line. If that goes then the project becomes well-and truly warped. Crossrail is being paid for by the City, business and Canary Wharf. Without the branch to Canary Wharf the project wouldn't just be warped, it would be scrapped. So one branch is needed but the other pays for both.
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Post by railtechnician on Jun 29, 2009 16:31:19 GMT
Um hate to go against the grain, but I think it would be catastrophic for London if Crossrail were cancelled. Political momentum on the only large scale transport project would be entirley lost, no new project would be forthcoming and it wouldn't release extra funding for Tube upgrades either as the capital would be used to pay back National debt. So London gets nothing new. That nation gets nothing new, capital investment decreases and we go back to Thatcherite years where fat-cats get fatter but there's no investment. Having said that, I will probably vote Tory, but that's more to do with my stark dislike for Labour than any affinity for the other brand of Popularist political meandering that our 2 party system currently offers. What a strange and warped sense of history you have! Fat cats have done extremely well under Labour and credit crunch or not the gravy train continues! Labour can take no credit whatsoever for giving CrossRail the go-ahead after sitting on the project for 10 years. They can't be blamed for stopping it but they were in no hurry to get it built and just as they sold London Underground down the river they washed their hands of CrossRail. It is unfortunate that unlike the MPs expenses row, which is small beer in comparison to the £taxpayers billions thrown away every year, no-one will be held to account for the fudge that is the policy on transport infrastructure. Under Labour the wheels continue to turn in the same old way and the Tories will do exactly the same in the same old way because they have all the excuses in the book at their disposal. Whether CrossRail is built or not will have little effect on anything because the moment passed more than 10 years ago and by the time what was planned is built it will simply not be fit for purpose, and Britain will carry on in the same old way making do as it has done for decades put sticking plaster over everything. British politicians simply haven't got a clue!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2009 22:41:51 GMT
[quote author=railtechnician board=crossrail thread=11144
[/quote]What a strange and warped sense of history you have! [/quote]
Why thank you. Always nice to receive a compliment. ;D
I am certainly not disputing Labours tendency to have benefited fat-cats. I am suggesting that capital investiture when targeted in an appropiate manner, will often create futher wealth. Schumpeter suggested, and quite rightly in my opinion, that in order to create future wealth, you have to destory a little; Creative-destruction. In other words, you have to live with the idea that Crossrail costs the taxpayer now, that it doesn't feel right to everyone, that it won't benefit everyone, that some businesses will be lost in order to gain from the long term benefits.
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Post by mrfs42 on Jun 29, 2009 22:58:44 GMT
<snip> Schumpeter suggested</snip> Indeed: ' Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy' IIRC. I suppose we're all surfing the Kondratiev wave...... ;D
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Post by max on Jun 30, 2009 7:11:20 GMT
I was always under the impression that the whole point of Crossrail was to stop the Shenfield Line from overloading the Central Line. If that goes then the project becomes well-and truly warped. Crossrail is being paid for by the City, business and Canary Wharf. Without the branch to Canary Wharf the project wouldn't just be warped, it would be scrapped. So one branch is needed but the other pays for both. I don't know whether you have noticed, but the government owns many of the occupants of the City and Canary Wharf now, and those bits which are not owned are not really in a fit state to pay for anything. Who promised to pay for the JLE? Who really paid?
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Post by mikebuzz on Jun 30, 2009 10:15:24 GMT
I wouldn't describe the financial services sector as in government hands or ownership, even if (without exaggeration) there has been a large bailout that has included the City and Canary Wharf, nor is it desirable to enforce where the sector spends its money - it's still private sector money even if the government has a stake in it or leant/gave some of it. The financial sector has not collapsed and will still (and should) be planning for eventual recovery and growth
I therefore see no change of priorities and executive decisions from the financial sector.
I don't think the country's on its knees and should ditch financial services for industry or mining/agriculture (even though I think non-Eurozone manufacturing would be great and a new role for the northern/midland cities).
Therefore I don't see the need for transport projects based in/on London to be ditched or modified just because most of us have had it up to here with banks.
Clearly the CW branch has economic benefits and if we are to be totally pessimistic and assume the it won't then the country certainly won't be building lines to Shenfield for commuters without jobs.
In the current recession it's interesting to note that Crossrail is still being financially backed. It won't be except by direct government money if the CW branch were ditched.
Personally I'm all for an increase in government money for transport and public services (maybe they could legislate to rid these sectors of too much middle and upper management while they're at it) but it's not realistic to think it's going to happen or that suddenly all the spiralling costs won't happen.
JLE was different. It was a private sector contribution only in part (as was the route modification) and it all went wrong as did Metronet. That's a sign of how it's often private companies who collapse but if we're going to go all historical, then look at British Leyland. BLMC was a private company that collapsed, had strikes etc, was bailed out, then as British Leyland it took no money from the tax-payer for 6 years, even then it was a bit of investment for new models. It was successfully downsized and profitable under it's newly privatised BAE ownership but after a few years they and their private successors messed it up. Look at BR - dull and corporate but contributing to the coffers when rail travel was historically low. Does this mean government natonalisation is a good idea? Or should these things be left entirely to the private sector to just go bust and make lots of short-term money for their board members and share owners?
Whatever, we're left with a Crossrail project in a PPP world.
Would the plan be different if it was all government money? I doubt it. Clearly its the government that wants Shenfield and Maidenhead/Reading as part of stage one, and the SE branch was always part of stage two and it makes economic sense.
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Post by max on Jun 30, 2009 10:55:31 GMT
I don't think that you appreciate just how serious the current financial crisis it. The British Governent owns majority stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland (that includes NatWest) and Lloyds Bank (including Halifax BS and Bank of Scotland). In America, the banks are in an even worse state. Both governments have spent a lot of money propping the system up. This is going to result in a need to raise taxes substantially, or interest rates (to encourage the purchase of national debt via government bonds, and to counter the serious inflationary pressure that all this government speding will result in). That is not a situation that is conducive to spending on infrastructure. The JLE experience is directly relevant. Few of the financial institutions not in government control are in a fit state to make large contributions to infrastructure projects.
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Post by cetacean on Jun 30, 2009 12:10:20 GMT
Would the plan be different if it was all government money? . It is virtually all government money. The only contributions from business are: - £230m from BAA
- £150m from the Canary Wharf Group
- £200m from the City of London (which is hardly private)
- some similarly sized amount from the developer for the Woolwich station box
The rest is split between Network Rail*, DFT and TfL/GLA, which are all publicly funded bodies. The GLA plans to recoup £3.5bn of its contribution through business rates, but will be paying upfront for the construction. Or in summary, around £15bn of the £15.9bn upfront cost comes from public funds, and the ultimate plan is only for £4.4bn to be contributed directly by business, or about 28%.
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Post by miztert on Jun 30, 2009 12:28:13 GMT
Would the plan be different if it was all government money? . It is virtually all government money. The only contributions from business are: - £230m from BAA
- £150m from the Canary Wharf Group
- £200m from the City of London (which is hardly private)
- some similarly sized amount from the developer for the Woolwich station box
The rest is split between Network Rail*, DFT and TfL/GLA, which are all publicly funded bodies. [...] That's not quite right - whilst the City of London Corporation is directly contributing £200m, it "will seek contributions from businesses of £150m, and has guaranteed £50m of these contributions". In addition, £300m will be raised by the GLA in the form of "developer contributions" - these are 'contributions' in a different sense of the word however, as I think they'll basically be levied on appropriate developments (i.e. ones that will benefit from Crossrail) by the GLA as part of the planning permission process. All that's in the December 2008 go-ahead announcement, as per this Mayoral press release. Nonetheless, it's all still relatively small beer... Indeed. The magic thing is the Business Rates Supplement that the GLA is going to levy, without which the whole thing would've never got off the ground.
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Post by mikebuzz on Jun 30, 2009 13:40:16 GMT
Doesn't the 16bn figure include insurance etc. AFAIK the government is only definitely putting in the difference up to £10 bn - i.e. £5bn. Still a ridiculous amount but with about £5 bn hoped to come from business etc it makes sense to go for it (it probably exceeds the Canary Wharf branch cost). Don't forget it would have been a higher contribution probably if we weren't in recession, though hopefully that self same recession will make Crossrail cheaper to build. I don't think that you appreciate just how serious the current financial crisis it. The British Governent owns majority stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland (that includes NatWest) and Lloyds Bank (including Halifax BS and Bank of Scotland). In America, the banks are in an even worse state. Both governments have spent a lot of money propping the system up. This is going to result in a need to raise taxes substantially, or interest rates (to encourage the purchase of national debt via government bonds, and to counter the serious inflationary pressure that all this government speding will result in). That is not a situation that is conducive to spending on infrastructure. The JLE experience is directly relevant. Few of the financial institutions not in government control are in a fit state to make large contributions to infrastructure projects. Don't patronise me (again). The government owns stakes in some banks. Big deal. This doesn't mean a hill of beans. You can chose to believe the old Etonian (daddy's got 30 million, he might look clean cut but he doesn't live on a Brookside Estate cleaning his car of a Sunday) preparing you for high taxes and no public expenditure but nothing's gonna drive me into the arms of this fairly useless government more than that. However much you think has been spent on bailouts it only equals our current national debt which is better than that of most equivalent countries. Don't assume your economic assessment or forecast is something obvious which we all agree on. I suspect you are as ignorant of the benefits brought by a global financial hub (and it's infrastructure) as you are of the need to make as much as we can of the goods we buy. We also need as much OPEC, Oligarch and Chinese money as we can get. Come back when you know about offshore dependencies and currency debts. Meanwhile if it's that bad I would prefer Crossrail to nothing at all or something that isn't going to attract industry or foreign capital. You cite the JLE. Look at the economy after that. Was it a disaster for us? I'm of the school that says do the projects in the recession.
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