GWR to take over Heathrow Express from August 2018

I need some more explanation. The new operators will use 12 trainsets instead of 14 even though the frequency is the same. Is this correct? If so, is this an assumed increase in reliability and a decrease in servicing time?

As for the OOC depot, why would have two fewer trainsets make a difference? Or are they moving to a new location that can stable 12 trains?

Thanks

Thanks. Do you know where GWR will operate the services from? And what will happen to the current HEX stock?

And also how can GWR operate with 12 sets as opposed to 14? That's a significant percentage cut...

Here are some answers / comments based on informed comments elsewhere.

The 387s will be maintained at Reading. The sub contracting by Heathrow Airport Limited (HAL) to GWR is very clever as it avoids a replacement depot being constructed for the HEX trains. It also releases land on time for the HS2 project at Old Oak Common. I can see this was a big win for the DfT who would not want Heathrow potentially delaying their flagship project.

I can't comment on relative numbers of EMUs to run the HEX service. Others have explained why the 387s will be surplus.

I agree that this is a risk reduction exercise for Heathrow. It gets them out of a load of cost and operational issues which transfer to GWR. They are left to concentrate on the money and marketing and trying to keep HEX as a viable proposition along Crossrail.

I would assume that HAL, DfT and First Group have an agreed position of potential termination of the operational "management contract" for HEX services. There will be all the usual stuff about safety breaches / fraud etc which are "boiler plate" standard terms on such arrangements. I also expect that HAL have the option, with sufficient notice period, to end the HEX service whenever they want post 2019 when the 387s are in service. They will obviously have to give DfT and First Group (or any successor TOC) decent notice to end the agreement to allow a managed wind down of the service and to meet all the other legal and financial obligations. DfT will have to be told as they are the contracting party for the Great Western franchise.

I do feel this is a clever move overall - it reduces TOCS running into Paddington from 3 to 2. It allows marginally faster EMUs to run which, from comments elsewhere, should be an aid to pathing of trains and track capacity. It gives HAL scope to reduce their costs and risks. It gives HAL an escape route from HEX if they need one if Crossrail is overwhelmingly successful. As said above it utilises stock that would otherwise be spare post Dec 2019 when TfL take on more services on the slow lines. This is all part of an emerging picture - remember all the "sweetness and light" last July when DfT and TfL were having a "love in" over the extension of Oyster ticketing and TfL running Crossrail to Reading / T5? I think this sub contracting of HEX is all part and parcel of the same overarching approach. It's just being revealed slowly but surely.

Elsewhere I've seen comments that class 769s tri-modes are supposed to be turning up to take over the Henley, Windsor and Reading - Gatwick / Basingstoke local routes. Marlow and Greenford remain diesel operated. That frees up even more DMUs for redeployment. Potentially the 20 year old HEX units could be transferred to Northern as they run similar stock out of Leeds but that's my wild speculation not informed comment.

Only a fortnight ago one of Northern's regional directors said:

"Anywhere there is a spare train, we'll try and grab it to bring it to the north"

If the 332s go to Leeds then the 331s would go to the northwest is what I'm hearing.

On paper, 332s + 333s in West Yorkshire, 323s concentrated on Manchester and Liverpool displacing 319s to be converted to diesel, with perhaps 331s used for the longer-distance "Northern Connect" services. Reality may well work out rather differently however, as there are other factors which come into play - for example the 323s are currently not accessibility compliant. With the benefit of hindsight, it would seem Northern might well have been better ordering more diesels, especially with the recent issues with delivering electrification.

I understood the 331s are to replace all the 321, 322 and 323s on Northern.

Less popular with whom? Are you suggesting that they will head south to join their Midland brethren then return?
It is noticeable that the diesel units are being manufactured first (possibly so that the Pacers can be rapidly eradicated), I don't think any rail user in the north would consider stock that isn't second hand "a mistake". The accountants at DfT may have a different view though.

Perhaps I could have worded that better. Yes I meant the West Midlands 323s plus keep the existing Manchester ones. You’re certainly right about 365s being preferred over 700s (and 387s in most cases too), however the feeling seems to be that the 319s are not particularly loved in the north-west. Personally I’d take a 323 over a 319 - the 323s are nice trains, and good performers too compared to 319s. If only it were that simple!