C2C New Train Units 2016 - Temporary?

Railway Gazette says they will be cl.387s from the Porterbrook Leasing order:
www.railwaygazette.com/news/traction-rolling-stock/single-view/view/c2c-to-lease-electrostars-from-porterbrook-speculative-build.html

It won't solve the issue completely. C2C are in a genuinely difficult position largely not of their making.

Their traditional market is Essex to the City commuting. In the last 20 years this has been augmented by Essex to Canary Wharf commuting via West Ham and Limehouse. More recently though the population increases plus more people moving to cheaper areas like Barking and Dagenham have caused a huge surge in people wanting to use the "express" capability of C2C between Barking and West Ham / Limehouse / Fenchurch St. Those factors are outside of C2C's direct control. The DfT (and I assume TfL a a consultee) required a "Metro" style stopping service which C2C duly implemented. This meant the fleet was somewhat stretched and clearly Essex commuters got heartily fed up. The Metro style service no doubt created a further surge in demand.

The problem hasn't and won't go away though. It will get worse and worse and worse because people will continue to migrate to this part of London. We have a massive expansion due at Barking Riverside. Ditto at Beam Park which will add a new station on the Rainham line. If the infrastructure could take it you could make every peak C2C train 12 cars long and they'd still be full to bursting point. Regrettably C2C is no longer just an Essex commuter service - it is also a London one and London's demands are growing faster than Essex's. Commuters in Essex will, unfortunately for them, have to get used to very different commuting demand which means their concept of a guaranteed seat on the train is gone. They can demand all they like but it's too late (in my view). The line will also need resignalling at some point to increase capacity (ATO inwards from Barking?) and something may need doing at Fenchurch St if a lot of 12 car trains are to be run.

What is really lacking is the recognition that something new and genuinely additional is needed to serve the Thameside corridor to add a big uplift to commuting capacity in about 15-20 years time. That might actually give C2C a bit of a break although their service will remain very busy (IMO).

I thought the deal was to use Class 360s transferred from Heathrow Connect? They were not affected by the problem with the 332s other than having to "stand in" for the 332s in the short term. [happy to be corrected - I only paid a little attention to the issue]

Reducing the Jubilee line service to Stratford is a complete non-starter as it is full of people community to Canary Wharf, London Bridge, etc. There is no way the DLR could cope on it's own and you'd reduce the needed services for people travelling to/from SE London via North Greenwich and Canning Town/Woolwich Arsenal to Stratford and beyond. The only reason North Greenwich terminators exist is that Stratford can't reverse the full service, there is no tail-off in demand as you approach the terminus like at the western end of the line. In the evening rush hour, the train following a North Greenwich reverser will often be tricky to get on, so I will usually let it pass and get the one behind that.

Extending the DLR to Thamesmead can and should be done. You have two sensible choices - extending from Gallions Reach or from Woolwich Arsenal. The first would require either abandoning the short section between the depot and Beckton, or having it as a short spur. I prefer the latter as Beckton is a well used station serving a supermarket and bus station. My thoughts last time this came up were to run services from the city to Beckton and from Stratford International to the extension, giving plenty of opportunity for same-platform interchange for those wanting the other route. To my knowledge the reason why the Beckton and Wooliwch branches don't currently both have an all day service to the International branch is lack of rolling stock rather than lack of route capacity. I suspect that expansion of Beckton depot would be required but land space is not (yet) at a premium here.

Abandoning the Royals branch is another non-starter as there is currently and in the very near future massive development happening along it. Yes, it's been slower than than anticipated but it is happening now. Even 5 years ago evening rush hour trains would be full and standing at least as far as Royal Victoria. ExCeL generates massive traffic on event days, and UEL generates generally non-peaky flows throughout the day.

At Woolwich the DLR faces northwest. This means that to extend to Thamesmead you need either a Y or Δ junction, the latter obviously gives greater flexibility but would cost more - particularly as the junction would need to be below ground, probably somewhere near Plumstead bus garage. A Y junction could conceivably face either way, requiring reversing at Woolwich (not a major issue for the DLR) or making Woolwich a spur. Thamesmead to Woolwich and Thamesmead to north-of-the-river services would I suspect be equally desirable, again pointing towards a delta junction being preferable. I imagine that if the DLR is extended from the Woolwich branch that a depot on the extension would be desirable as it's a long way to Poplar (particularly with a reversal at Woolwich) and even further to Beckton.

This is getting firmly off topic for c2c and into RIPAS territory, so a passing mod may wish to move it if it generates further discussion

Who said anything about running more trains to Stratford? There aren't enough North Greenwich reversers to sustain a full branch operation - even with 36ph on the central section, London Reconnections project a 32tph service in 2018 of which 8tph would terminate at North Greenwich. The inference is that of the full post-2022 36tph service will see only ¾ of that reach Stratford - meaning a maximum 12tph if the infrasturcture at Stratford can't handle more than 24tph and this comment suggests even that may be tricky. Lets be very generous and say that there will be 16 tph terminating at NG - is that really going to be enough to sustain a new branch?

If you want a tube line to Thamesmead then I think you're going to have to build a new one rather than branch the Jubilee line. This then raises questions about where you send it. Personally I think if you are doing that, then a north-east to south-east London orbital line that interchanges with as many of the existing radials as possible is something that should be seriously considered as it will relieve pressure on existing interchanges further in, open up needed new journey possibilities and allow alternatives for passengers in times of disruption. I'd build it as a national rail line and, (subject to business case of course) build in provision for longer distance goods and passenger services between the channel ports and eastern/north eastern England to bypass central London.