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Post by pridley on May 30, 2015 17:50:26 GMT
There is barely a middle class person in Tottenham or Edmonton, but The Guardian is now writing about these places as a result of the TFL takeover. Gentrification cannot be far: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/29/neglected-rail-services-london-tfl-overgroundHighlights from the report include some interesting comments from Mike Brown, the managing director of London’s rail service: TfL will invest £25m next year in overhauling the stations now coming under its control. (Is this new news? Would be over £500k per station?) the number of services will not increase significantly in the short term. (implying that services could increase significantly in the long term?) "we’re determined to bring it up to the same standard" as the rest of the Overground. (Does that include having an off peak service similar to on-peak once more reliable trains are online?) AND THE KICKER: The next plan for the Overground will be 24-hour travel: inevitable, says Brown, and potentially running on the central loop at weekends from 2017. (Given that the comments are in context with the West Anglia takeover, can we surmise that West Anglia services will become 24hr at weekends? I long suspected this following the trial of that this New Year's Eve). |
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Post by pridley on May 30, 2015 19:15:17 GMT
Total journeys made on the existing Overground network (excluding West Anglia) in 2014/15
140 million.
Total journeys made each year on West Anglia routes transferring from Abellio to TfL
20 million
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What if, lets just suggest, what if West Anglia provides proportionately more journeys eventually, given that it does tackle Victoria Line and a major City terminus, with links to Crossrail.
So, Overground presently has 83 stations. That is an average of 1,686,747 passengers per station.
If West Anglia performs as well, and with eight carriage trains, it should exceed comfortably, 25 stations x 1,686,747 passengers = 42,168,675, or more than double.
Given that the trains are eight carriages long, and due to the benefits of them reaching a key terminus plus Crossrail and given that Overground has only recently gone from four to five trains (in part), I would hazard a guess that West Anglia could comfortably be carrying 80 to 90 million per year within 5 to 10 yrs and could be half of the Overground capacity.
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Post by christopher125 on May 31, 2015 15:06:21 GMT
It says the next plan 'for the Overground' will be 24hr travel, I don't see anything to suggest that specifically means West Anglia and I think that's highly unlikely.
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Post by stapler on May 31, 2015 15:13:20 GMT
<<Given that the trains are 8 carriages...>>
Is there any indication that they will be 8 cars all day? At the moment, they tend to be 4 out of peaks. Though there is a very good case to try 8 throughout the day during the Victoria Line closure Seven Sisters-W'stow C in August
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Post by pridley on May 31, 2015 16:36:01 GMT
No indication that they will be eight carriages, but other London Overground services do not shorten off-peak. I would imagine that TFL will want to see how people respond to the fare cuts, being on the tube map and soon to be announced improved off-peak service levels before ordering new trains. I would imagine that they are still deciding whether they will be coupled four car units or plain and simple eight car units. I would imagine that there are short term benefits by not going with four car units, because you need less locomotives, and there is little point in making that investment if you are sure that ridership will increase. However, they may go with four car units if they anticipate a doubling of service frequencies, because if that happens, they just buy new carriages rather than new locomotives. We shall see.
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Post by norbitonflyer on May 31, 2015 19:40:16 GMT
I would imagine that there are short term benefits by not going with four car units, because you need less locomotives, However, they may go with four car units if they anticipate a doubling of service frequencies, because if that happens, they just buy new carriages rather than new locomotives. We shall see. What are these "locomotives" of which you speak? www.southernelectric.org.uk/news/overground/img/bswann378137edenbridge280909.jpgThe lines in question have used multiple unit trains since the early 1960s - these have the power distributed along the train and have no separate locomotive. A four car train has, for example, three powered cars. An eight car train has six power cars. Pros and cons. An eight car train made up of two four-car units has two redundant driving cabs in the middle of the train, which are expensive to build, and waste space that could be used for passengers. But the possibility of splitting the train allows shorter trains to be run at quiet times, saving power and allowing the other half to undergo maintenance. It also means that if two cars fail in different eight-car trains you can still make one good train out of the two good 4-car units. |
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Post by pridley on May 31, 2015 20:19:46 GMT
I would imagine that there are short term benefits by not going with four car units, because you need less locomotives, However, they may go with four car units if they anticipate a doubling of service frequencies, because if that happens, they just buy new carriages rather than new locomotives. We shall see. An eight car train made up of two four-car units has two redundant driving cabs in the middle of the train, which are expensive to build, and waste space that could be used for passengers. Thanks for the info, and yes, this part of what you said suggests to me that TFL may want to see if there is a rising trend in ridership before deciding to waste time with four car units and the shunting of trains that would be required if they will simply move towards eight cars all day within a timespan of a few years. The extra movements required to split units could get in the way of TFL's main desire, which will be to maximise the number of trains running. Loosing a few minutes with additional dwell time here and there to split units could waste slots that a potential additional service could travel. |
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Post by peterc on May 31, 2015 21:38:50 GMT
An 8 car unit would be moving a lot of fresh air between Romford and Upminster and IIRC would require longer platforms.
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Post by snoggle on May 31, 2015 23:00:23 GMT
No indication that they will be eight carriages, but other London Overground services do not shorten off-peak. I would imagine that TFL will want to see how people respond to the fare cuts, being on the tube map and soon to be announced improved off-peak service levels before ordering new trains. I would imagine that they are still deciding whether they will be coupled four car units or plain and simple eight car units. I would imagine that there are short term benefits by not going with four car units, because you need less locomotives, and there is little point in making that investment if you are sure that ridership will increase. However, they may go with four car units if they anticipate a doubling of service frequencies, because if that happens, they just buy new carriages rather than new locomotives. We shall see. A few facts. 1. TfL have already specified and published the number of trains they wish to buy - currently 45 4 car EMUs. 30 for West Anglia, 8 for GOBLIN, 1 for Romford Upminster, 6 for Watford - Euston. The existing 378s from the Watford Line will be cascaded to enhance NLL and ELL services in line with stated objectives - extra NLL tph and 2 extra tph from Crystal Palace to the ELL. 2. The procurement process for the new trains is nearing its completion. It has been ongoing for months. 3. TfL said they expect to announce the winning bidder for the new trains in the near future. There is a TfL Board Meeting in about a month where I expect the final decision will be taken as to the award. 4. It is standard TfL practice to include options in rolling stock contracts for additional trains. This has been done several times with the Class 378 order. While I clearly have no idea what TfL is doing for the current procurement I would not be surprised if there is 1 or possibly 2 options in the final contract. This would allow TfL to order more trains if they were to be needed. EDIT - I read a TfL document yesterday that indicated options for more trains will be included to allow for service / capacity expansion when required. It is clearly the case that TfL are NOT waiting to see what happens with West Anglia patronage post takeover. They are already committed to buying new trains to the same basic fleet size as is currently used on the respective service groups. We have not got terribly long to wait to see what is being ordered and whether the eventual order is still based on 4 car EMUs. Clearly some of the order MUST be 4 cars - you won't get 8 cars on the GOBLIN, Romford - Upminster or Euston Watford. Only West Anglia might possibly justify an 8 car configuration but we must remember that no one wants to pay a lot of money for trains, maintenance and power usage if the trains aren't going to be very well used all the time. Better to have 4 cars and double up when required. The modern form of rolling stock contract tends to have stepped levels of cost depending on mileage. This is why so many TOCs only run 4 car formations at weekends - to run longer trains and incur more mileage costs means a massive step change in franchise costs. Now TfL and LOROL may have a more flexible approach but I doubt it given the 378s are financed through a ROSCO / finance house. It may be something that is resolved for the next Overground concession after November 2016 because we know that TfL want to expand services then but possibly in varying ways on different lines. Therefore the cost bands may not be so steeply differentiated but I doubt the public will ever know as financial numbers are usually redacted from published contracts (I would expect TfL to publish the contract). |
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jun 1, 2015 13:06:30 GMT
Loosing a few minutes with additional dwell time here and there to split units could waste slots that a potential additional service could travel. I don't think there is any likelihood of TfL having trains dividing in service (front portion for Enfield, rear portion for Cheshunt, for example) but 2x4car may be split at a terminus to allow two off peak services to be made from one 8 car peak train (allowing another 8-car set to go to depot for routine maintenance). It also means a fault on one car doesn't disable the entire train, as you can run the good unit as a short formation (not ideal, but better than cancelling the service altogether). 4-car units also have the versatility to be used on lines which can't take longer trains, or indeed to be formed into 12-car trains should loadings require and platform lengths permit. The extra cost is more cabs, and more autocouplers (the lessons of class 458/0 have, hopefully, been learned) |
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Post by snoggle on Jun 1, 2015 20:41:52 GMT
It says the next plan 'for the Overground' will be 24hr travel, I don't see anything to suggest that specifically means West Anglia and I think that's highly unlikely. You are quite right to be sceptical. The only section of Overground that the Mayor has suggested will get 24 hour weekend services is the East London Line from New Cross Gate to Dalston Junction. [This was part of a wide ranging announcement by the Mayor and Chancellor in the run up to the General Election]. The reason for choosing this line is simple - this is the section that TfL own and they appoint the maintenance contractor so there is more scope for flexibility. Network Rail are contracted to operate the signalling here and, of course, the contractual arrangement can be changed. As soon as you stray on to NR metals you have all the issues of established rights to engineering hours, freight train paths etc. You're also likely to face an enormous and disproportionate charge to run all night trains. The "precedent" of New Year's Eve all night services really has zero bearing on the wider availability of 24 hour rail services. It's easy to flex arrangements for one night in the year plus there is a long established public expectation of special arrangements in London for NYE travel. |
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