Potential strike over WTT 44/45

Possibly a greater proportion of early turn drivers are RMT members than are those starting later.

Looks like they kept up the core service until 15:45 then switched to Queen's Park to Harrow & Wealdstone although from Trackernet it doesn't look as if any trains are running apart from London Overground.

I know the posters in stations were warning of no or little service all weekend, but is that going to be the case? Looking at the times that Train Ops had been asked not to book on between, it's now been four hours since the first 'half' of the strike ended, but the TfL website still shows no service in the core section.

I have no knowledge of how staggered the book on times are for Train Ops on the Bakerloo, but perhaps someone here could shed some light?

Really hurts to say it, but in more than one respect that notice might as well read as an advertisement for cabless trains.

Yet they're not a fantasy as we already have them on the DLR, running underground without PEDs, and with essentially the same signalling system as we already have on two LU lines with more going the same way.

Don't get me wrong this is in no way something I'd like to see, and I'm firmly of the opinion that a skilled well-trained human is better than ATO, however if we continue to see elements of the driving cadre carry on as though they're the God of the railway then sooner or later someone is going to bite the bullet and decide to go for it on LU. There's a certain irony that part of the Bakerloo issue seems to revolve around operational incidents, presumably SPADs, so clearly the drivers on there aren't quite as holier-than-thou than is being made out.

I don't mean this to be interpreted as a rant, however the tone of that bulletin really grates me, specifically the first two paragraphs! To be fair the rest of it is quite reasonable.

Drivers are an important link in the chain which delivers a railway service, but they’re not the only one.

No crossover to reverse trains at Kilburn Park, but Kilburn High Road has one.

Do trains run empty between Queens Park and Kilburn High Road ?

They do indeed. They tip out pfm 1 QPK before running down to KHR to reverse. 

Regardless of how the DLR operates on sub surface sections TfL's own conclusion was that driverless operation on the Tube would require PEDs.

To retrofit PEDs almost all the existing platforms would have to be rebuilt, either by closing individual platforms while still running a service or by closing down whole sections for months, both of which would cause massive disruption.  We're not talking years, we're talking decades. Given TfL's current financial state that isn't going to happen any time soon, especially when they're already committed to the Bakerloo Line extension and they're struggling to raise cash for Crossrail 2 which probably won't even start construction until the 2030s.

Given where the current strike is its rather ironic that the feasibility study states the Bakerloo wouldn't be getting PEDs and given the statement that driverless operation would only be possible with them then the obvious conclusion is that it would continue to be driver operated.  Obviously they wouldn't be able to fit PEDs north of Queen's Park and didn't consider it economically viable to have driverless operation on the rest of the line.  In addition the Piccadilly would be driver operated between Rayner's Lane and Uxbridge.

Finally TfL conceded that PEDs couldn't be installed until all the old stock on the Piccadilly, Central and Waterloo & City lines had been replaced and that until the PEDs were fitted the new trains would have to be driver-operated.  So the only way that driverless operation could be achieved would be to negotiate with the unions to get the drivers to agree to train on the new stock or be prepared to shut down entire lines for years while the work was carried out.


That is why talk about "cabless trains" are a fantasy no matter what "elements of the driving cadre" do and if TfL are ever going to "bite the bullet" it won't be until after Crossrail 2 has been built at the very earliest. Not that driverless operation would make the Tube strike-free as some like to claim, when RMT called a strike on the DLR in November 2015 there was no service for 48 hours apart from one train staffed by managers running a shuttle service between Canning Town and Custom House.

Acknowledging that we're off-topic. The experience of Paris Metro has some bearing on the conversion. Line 1 took five to six years, from 2007, with the PEDs installed from 2009 to 2011. However, much of the work on the stations was altering the platform height (for level boarding) and reinforcement, not installation of the PEDs themselves. The full switch over was dependent on the final changeover of rolling stock.

Line 4 is under conversion at the moment, with many stations having the PEDs fitted, work on the ground started in 2018 and the full automatic operation should be running by the end of 2022. There are pictures online showing the installation of the PEDs being done piece by piece, without the station being closed for most of the work.

Of course, the Bakerloo is the one line where automation is always going to be very hard, unless any extended line is operationally split at Queens Park.

There is more discussion in this post and its surrounding posts regarding the practical issues with installing PEDs on platforms not designed for them. Perhaps it would be a good idea to have a dedicated thread about this issue as it seems to come up periodically.

I fully agree with you on the impact of these strikes, but while PEDs are a prerequisite for driverless operation, that is not the only reason why they might be (suggested to be) installed.

Thanks for the photos!
The guy in the jeans in the second photo does appear to be musing ‘what is THAT doing HERE?’
I never knew tube trains can sometimes be seen at stations not on the tube map, even if not in public service