Official Oyster smartphone app now live

I suspect you're in a "chicken and egg" situation with NFC. Not many UK phones have it. People can't see the point of asking for it hence phone providers don't provide. TfL won't incur the development cost for a "pseudo" Oyster on a NFC phone when bank cards are largely contactless and work on the system already. In Japan NFC phones have been prevalent for a long time and you can use your phone to travel by linking it to a bank / credit card instead of using Suica or Pasmo (Tokyo area). There may be other factors at play in Japan that made NFC phones more attractive to manufacture, offer and for customers to use them. Japan is often at odds with elsewhere in terms of technology but they have a unique culture that can support that sort of "different" technological development.

Clearly there is an upside for TfL with the app and faster upload. It takes even more transactions away from stations and also lays the foundation to strip a lot of cost by shrinking the Oyster Ticket Stop network and reducing stock holdings, network comms and commission costs to agents. In a sign of where things are going Tfl are now consulting on making Tramlink cashless because there is no case to spend the money replacing the life expired ticket machines. One wonders how long it will before "life expired" [1] LU ticket machines start being removed from stations.

[1] in quotes because a lot of the internal gubbins in ticket machines has been replaced and upgraded over the years. Really only the outer shell and frame that is original.

There's certainly still a need for ticket machines across the Tube network, particularly within zones 1&2. I can't see the existing machines being replaced anytime soon, particular in light of many of the recent upgrades (new chip and pin units, new coin handling mechanisms, and on many multifares new note handling units.

Aside from the casing, it's pretty much just the magnetic ticket handling side of things that are still original - indeed, on the newer machines procured for the Jubilee line extension (and DLR[!]), these have been retrofitted in place of a newer but less reliable version.

That said, TVMs are starting to appear in a few stations (in addition to the RSL stations on the Bakerloo & District lines) and this is clearly where future strategy lies. I believe the stock of AFMs and MFMs is now exhausted, although a handful of QBMs will be available once the current upgrade programme is completed.

I think it more likely that a more literal cashless approach would be taken where TfL stop accepting notes and coins as payment but retain facilities for card/mobile payment. This would remove all the cash handling expenses and reduce or even remove the need for the secure suites. There would still be a need to accomodate those who don't have a card for whatever reason, but that could be ticket shops I guess.

I certainly think the days of TfL issuing paper tickets is limited. Gates would still need to accept paper tickets for NR tickets at shared gatelines and at locations where cross-London tickets are valid, although it's certainly plausible the latter could become an oyster product - tell the ticket retailer your oyster card number with your order and when you tap in at e.g. Paddington on the right day it gets activated and the gates open for you, valid for one trip to e.g. Liverpool Street. The same happens on your return journey - the product is activated on your touch in at Liverpool Street LU. Scenarios would need to be worked out for any OSIs and multiple valid routes (e.g. Embankment for Charring Cross, Lancaster Gate for Paddington), in cases of diversion, etc. One potential issue would be with period returns where trips to London are made before the return journey (e.g. I've done Somerset → Essex through London, day trip from Essex to London, Essex to Somerset through London). I don't see these as insurmountable given sufficient thought though.

Comparing with my experience yesterday in Paris. The only purchase I had to make in France was a metro/RER ticket from Gare de Lyon to Gare du Nord (and I was in a hurry because my train from Zurich was late). How, other than buying a paper ticket, could that have been done?

(The insane signage at Gare de Lyon seems designed to raise the blood pressure of anyone trying to cross Paris. I had done my homework and knew which line and direction, but although there were copious signs for the southbound Line D (direction Melun, Corbeil-Essonnes and Malesherbes) there were none at all for "direction Creil"))

The National Railcard Discount remains the ONE obstacle to be overcome, preventing the removal of ticket machines, when the facility for Ticket Stops to input National Railcard Discounts to Oyster cards was abolished three to four years ago.

I think stations accepting cards but not notes or coins is likely to be less of an obstacle for visitors than cashless buses, although that doesn't mean it wont be an obstacle. Do the visitors centres current do cash handling? If so then they will be a partial solution at the busier locations with visitors.

For those receiving their travel tickets that include a cross-London journey by post, an Oyster card could be included for those that don't have one (probably best as opt-out). A deposit may be needed for this, but this could be redeemed in the usual way at a ticket machine at the end of the journey or by posting it back (using an enclosed business reply envelope perhaps) to the ticket agents. The same could of course be done for tickets purchased to or from London.
For those collecting tickets at the station, there would need to be a way to collect the card in the first place. The ticket machine could print a voucher that could be exchanged for an Oyster card with the relevant product on it* at a major NR ticket office, at a TfL visitor centre, or at an LU ticket machine at the starting LU station.
*The voucher would just need to contain a unique code that could be typed in to the machine, NR having transmitted the details to LU when the tickets were purchased.

I would take that one step further: Allow a machine to sell a customer a ticket valid from a different station to where they are currently standing, to an unusual (but not unreasonable) NR destination, with a railcard.

Something like a machine at Rickmansworth selling a ticket from Amersham to Banbury with Gold card discount, for example.

And frequently foreign contactless cards do not work in the UK!