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Post by whistlekiller2000 on Jun 30, 2015 17:30:00 GMT
In other words, it's an aspiration or a vague possibility, not fact as it stands. They've only ordered one train for Romford-Upminster because that's all it needs. The cost of reinstating a passing loop would be massive and likely not worth it. I used to live near there and some friends still do and it's not exactly in need of expansion. I updated the post above linking to the relevant parts of the Mayoral Transport Strategy and note the fourth weapon, almost fanatical devotion to the Mayor. Certainly, a passing loop is not expensive relative to other recent Overground investments and satisfying Mayoral strategy is the way Bureaucrats work. This is the cheapest way of satisfying the Mayoral strategy of turn up and go frequency on this route. The West Anglia solution to satisfying the Mayoral Strategy, noted above, is yet easier to achieve once TFL have a hold on the network and have new rolling stock. This is what I mean. From your edited post: "Train frequency of at least four trains
per hour on each route where the
infrastructure allows, up to 23:00 "The infrastructure doesn't does it? And it won't as some other cases prove. Chesham doesn't need it and nor do some of these other remote branches. Unless you are advocating the suffocation of London with an unsustainable population of course. Anyway, once again we're drifting further from the OP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2015 17:46:28 GMT
I think it was about here, where the formation widens out. www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Emerson+Park,+Hornchurch,+Greater+London+RM11/@51.5714887,0.2083602,171m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8bb0d154899d7:0xb75be678054d6f3. I would be difficult to run a regular-interval service with the only passing loop so close to one end of the line. The OS 25" '1890s-1920s' (post 1912 as the line is labelled MR) georeferenced map on the NLS website (here) puts the loop at TQ535880 (and shows it as about 110m long), just east of The Ravensbourne (stream), where the line moves from cutting (from Emerson Park) to embankment: this is actually pretty much the mid point of the branch. The somewhat earlier 6" map on the same site (line is labelled LT&SR) does not show halt (Emerson Park), loop or Romford (LTS/MR) goods station, making me wonder whether they were all put in together (and when). Interestingly, the loop is not marked on the MR distance diagram.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 30, 2015 18:21:24 GMT
But they separately state a minimum turn up and go frequency of four trains per hour for all branches, implying two additional services per at peak for Soutbury loop, and retaining eight trains per hour (four carriages) off-peak. I base these points on existing TFL policies. The Press believe the release means 24hr services from Liverpool Street post 2017. Any thoughts on that? Sigh! How many times - there are not enough train paths into Liverpool Street to reliably deliver the service levels implied by 4 tph on an even headway on the West Anglia lines. There are NO stated plans by TfL or Network Rail to increase the paths. The 4 tph service level is an aspiration on TfL's part. They provide it where they sensibly can. I refer to my point above - there is no stated infrastructure improvement plan nor funding that would deliver the paths between Liverpool St and Bethnal Green nor provide turnround space at Cheshunt nor allow 4 tph stoppers and 2 tph semi fast via Southbury. I am relying on what I have read from TfL's plans NOT their policies, from questions I have asked Mike Swiggs of TfL via Twitter plus what my old friend Geoff Hobbs of TfL [1] has told the London Assembly. Geoff took me through TfL's aspirations for West Anglia about 3 years ago - before I left TfL. There was no revolution being plotted back then and TfL's budget has been cut back quite a lot since then. I expect no revolution now. We need the strategic backdrop for CR2, the Anglia franchise and Lea Valley redevelopment to provide some clarity about where investment will be directed and what objectives it is designed to achieve. Until Network Rail stablilises its investment plans and budget we should err on the side of caution. Something tells me their "Anglia connectivity" consultation may be headed for the dustbin. I don't care what the media think about 24 hour services. The media are incapable of reading press releases properly even very vague ones released by the Mayor and the Chancellor as a pre-election bribe. All the 24 hour service announcement referred to was the aspiration for the Sub Surface lines to eventually get the night tune when the signalling upgrade eventually sees the light of day; some level of weekend night service on the DLR and between Dalston and New Cross Gate on the Overground (i.e. the bit that TfL controls directly). We have done ALL OF THIS BEFORE on here in another thread. Now you can choose to disbelieve everything I write on here and that's fine but it can't be fun for people to keep re-reading the same stuff over and over again. [1] he's in charge of TfL's plans for rail devolution so should know what's going on.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2015 18:27:52 GMT
But clearly Chesham could also have a passing loop and be provided a shuttle, so maybe the hope is not to be too high. Are you sure about that?
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Rich32
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Post by Rich32 on Jun 30, 2015 21:38:39 GMT
Can we please get back to the original point about the procurement of new trains or start a new thread(s) if you wish to discuss future frequencies and/or infrastructure alterations.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jun 30, 2015 22:24:26 GMT
I think it was about here, where the formation widens out. The OS 25" '1890s-1920s' map on the NLS website puts the loop at TQ535880 (and shows it as about 110m long), The somewhat earlier 6" map does not show halt or loop, making me wonder whether they were put in together They were - the loop was to allow a loco to run round an Upmisnter - Emerson shuttle. If I've mislocated the loop by a couple of hundred yards, it doesn't negate the point that it would be difficult to maintain a 15-minute interval service over a single track line, even if the passing loop is at a station at the midpoint. LO only has the Emerson line because it doesn't fit with what's left of AGA. And in any case it already has four trains an hour, all connecting with fast London trains (two at Romford, and two at Upminster).
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Post by ashlar on Jun 30, 2015 22:28:57 GMT
Can we please get back to the original point about the procurement of new trains or start a new thread(s) if you wish to discuss future frequencies and/or infrastructure alterations. Indeed! There were rumours last week that Bombardier's press conference (with presumably lots of lovely CGI renderings) will be tomorrow. Is this confirmed?
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Post by snoggle on Jul 1, 2015 8:22:02 GMT
Indeed! There were rumours last week that Bombardier's press conference (with presumably lots of lovely CGI renderings) will be tomorrow. Is this confirmed? Must be imminent because the standstill period has finished and the contract should have been signed. No press release yet on the Bombardier site.
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Post by pridley on Jul 3, 2015 17:53:18 GMT
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Post by dazz285 on Jul 3, 2015 18:20:10 GMT
twitter chat today said.. The new Aventra trains have mixed longitudinal / transverse seating ... That's the plan says Tfl.
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Post by snoggle on Jul 3, 2015 18:25:47 GMT
Already reported on another thread on this forum. It's Aventra not Aventura. On Twitter today TfL said it would be a mixed seating layout (transverse and longitudinal). I asked that question. On Twitter today TfL said they were not going to run to Hertford East. I asked that question. That kills that rumour dead. On Twitter TfL said would not confirm the level of any extra frequencies and I specifically asked about both Enfield and Cheshunt services. I assume this is because negotiations with Network Rail are not finished so TfL will not make any public commitment. Any extra services would ONLY be off peak - based on what TfL have already said to Assembly Members. The 24 train option means nothing at this point in time other that what has already been said by TfL in its approval paper. Why must you keep hankering after information that won't have changed in the last two weeks? Asking the question a thousands times doesn't mean you get a thousand different answers. I apologise to other readers for another "groundhog day" answer.
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Post by pridley on Jul 3, 2015 23:51:25 GMT
Thank you snoggle. That confirms to me the most likely chain of events. I expect no change in services until October 2018 or earlier once all of the train sets on the Seven Sisters line get changed to Aventra, with the exception of some off peak eight car trains on known busy services. For example, I just got the last train to Cheshunt and it was eight carriages. This is because the old trains are not reliable enough to run a full peak service off peak. Though there may be some slight enhancement, I.e. Extension of the peak to 10am. And a later last train via Seven Sisters for the last tube,
What I expect now is a slow grind towards four trains per hour at all times to Enfield, retaining the existing two trains per hour at all times to Cheshunt.
No talk of Hertford East yet because this is not confirmed. But we have a precedent that may indicate the future action. One of the first changes when TFL took over was to shift Sunday semi fast Hertford East services to be via Tottenham Hale to facilitate clockwork timetables to all stations via Seven Sisters. Also, Network Rail's West Anglia strategy acknowledges a desire to have all Hertford East trains run via Tottenham Hale. The next shift that could allow week day Hertford East peak services to shift from Seven Sisters to Tottenham Hale is STAR, because there is already a gap in the timetable to allow two additional Brimsdown trains with a turn back facility. STAR could release enough capacity to open two Hertford East journeys.
Thus, I expect the final interim solution to be eight trains per hour on the core, four to both branches once STAR is commenced and after all initial new trains are in service. Then no change in frequency until they have maxed out on five car EMU's. By which time, other solutions may come into play to separate stopping and mainline trains at Bethnal Green to facilitate six trains per hour for each branch. A half way house could occur once Crossrail is live, because two Greater Anglia trains could shift to the old Shenfield lines and we may then see six trains per hour to Enfield, retaining four to Cheshunt, which may require a further platform for higher frequencies. I am sure that once those services are full, that other solutions will come into play once Crossrail 2 is implemented.
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Post by snoggle on Jul 4, 2015 9:23:53 GMT
Thank you for the thank you. I won't comment on the rest because I fear I may lose the will to live if I do so. I shall leave you to your musings.
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Post by norbitonflyer on Jul 4, 2015 10:38:48 GMT
Thank you snoggle. That confirms to me the most likely chain of events. I suspect that development on the West Anglia lines will be slower than on the original Overground network for two reasons. Firstly, the original network included two new sections of line, opening up journeys that previously had to be done by going in and out of central London (or more likely, were not done at all). Secondly, and more importantly, nearly all the expansion has been on the orbital routes - I can remember when the West London Line service consisted of a twice-daily shuttle between Clapham Junction and Olympia (with the Manchester- Brighton Intercities added later), and when I could join a train at Acton Central and have the entire class 501 carriage to myself. There is one line which has not shared in this expansion, and indeed is shortly to have its 5car 378s replaced by new 4-car Aventras. (And, I can remember when peak hour services on that line had six-car trains!) It is also the only radial route in the original network. The radial routes are starting from a much higher base, so the relative scope for improvement is likely to be much less. So, yes, there may be improvements on West Anglia - but if you want to know what to expect, the Wat-Eus route might be the place to look.
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Dom K
Global Moderator
The future is bright
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Post by Dom K on Jul 4, 2015 11:34:21 GMT
Thank you snoggle. That confirms to me the most likely chain of events. I expect no change in services until October 2018 or earlier once all of the train sets on the Seven Sisters line get changed to Aventra, with the exception of some off peak eight car trains on known busy services. For example, I just got the last train to Cheshunt and it was eight carriages. This is because the old trains are not reliable enough to run a full peak service off peak. Though there may be some slight enhancement, I.e. Extension of the peak to 10am. And a later last train via Seven Sisters for the last tube, What I expect now is a slow grind towards four trains per hour at all times to Enfield, retaining the existing two trains per hour at all times to Cheshunt. No talk of Hertford East yet because this is not confirmed. But we have a precedent that may indicate the future action. One of the first changes when TFL took over was to shift Sunday semi fast Hertford East services to be via Tottenham Hale to facilitate clockwork timetables to all stations via Seven Sisters. Also, Network Rail's West Anglia strategy acknowledges a desire to have all Hertford East trains run via Tottenham Hale. The next shift that could allow week day Hertford East peak services to shift from Seven Sisters to Tottenham Hale is STAR, because there is already a gap in the timetable to allow two additional Brimsdown trains with a turn back facility. STAR could release enough capacity to open two Hertford East journeys. Thus, I expect the final interim solution to be eight trains per hour on the core, four to both branches once STAR is commenced and after all initial new trains are in service. Then no change in frequency until they have maxed out on five car EMU's. By which time, other solutions may come into play to separate stopping and mainline trains at Bethnal Green to facilitate six trains per hour for each branch. A half way house could occur once Crossrail is live, because two Greater Anglia trains could shift to the old Shenfield lines and we may then see six trains per hour to Enfield, retaining four to Cheshunt, which may require a further platform for higher frequencies. I am sure that once those services are full, that other solutions will come into play once Crossrail 2 is implemented. I think I need to have a word with John Connor to reprogram a Terminator to come back in time to change the future, sorry I mean past! 31st May 2015 was London Overground Judgement Day! With these repeated ideas, we may end up living with them forever! Or until Crossrail 2 is finished/started, I will be near 50, so I could even be dead (with excitement??)
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Post by pridley on Jul 4, 2015 12:21:58 GMT
Actually, there is no repetition, It is a new iteration based upon Snoggle's feedback. Whilst many humans hate iteration, it is a ubiquitous factor of nature, without which the universe would not function.
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Post by grahamhewett on Jul 4, 2015 16:02:36 GMT
Wasn't it Humpty Dumpty who said that what I tell you three times is true. To keep snoggle sane, we could, but won't, have a useful discussion about the Existentialist view of reality and whether parallel universes exist in which the laws of physics are different....
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Post by snoggle on Feb 24, 2016 11:22:30 GMT
Looks like we are very close to awarding the new concession for the Overground. There is a paper going to the Finance and Policy Cttee next week and the Board later in March. TfL are clearly getting the contract award out of the way before purdah starts for the Mayoral Election and to allow an appropriate mobilisation period. Obviously no hints as to who the preferred operator is but confirmation of how some bits of the new contract will work plus a range of pre-priced options for service enhancements. There are also changes to the reliability and punctuality regimes with a tightened "3 min window" for punctuality. There are also new linkages between the two measures to stop perverse behaviours of skip stopping services all the time to restore right time running. There are also measures to apply pressure on Network Rail and freight companies to bolster their performance. This is similar to the arrangements on the Crossrail concession. Also an interesting observation about high levels of fare evasion on the newly inherited routes but TfL plan to gate many more stations. content.tfl.gov.uk/fpc-160302-15-london-overground-operating-concession.pdf
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Post by snoggle on Mar 17, 2016 17:12:20 GMT
I'd expect the decision on the new operator to be announced tomorrow morning in line with relevant Stock Exchange reporting rules. The decision was due to be made at today's TfL Board meeting.
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rincew1nd
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Post by rincew1nd on Mar 18, 2016 8:17:08 GMT
I'm reading on Twitter that it is to be Arriva.
As were at the end of the process, a new thread has been created to discuss the new concession. I'm not locking this one yet, in case anyone wishes to discuss the procurement.
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